Inconsistencies in Spain's Budget Suggest Deficit will be 7% not 5.3%; Andalucia Regional Government Will Not Agree to Deficit Targets; Only 26% Trust Prime Minister to Overcome Crisis

"Courtesy of Google translate, please consider The inconsistencies of the State Budget for 2012

Much is written these days about the budget submitted by the Government for 2012, which proposes that the deficit be lowered to 5.3% of GDP. In this article we focus not on a comprehensive analysis of these items but in both revenue and expenditure forecasts which seem less realistic.

The first of these items is to transfer the SPEE (State Employment Service, former INEM). The government budgeted a reduction of 15.6% (2,464,000), arguing that many are unemployed benefits are ending.

Since the Government is assuming that unemployment will increase this year over 600,000 people, there is no reason for us to see a turnaround, quite the contrary. In view of the numbers a reasonable assumption would be a 10% increase in unemployment benefits starting in 2012. This means a delay of nearly 4,500 million from the budget, ie 0.4% of GDP..."

at  http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/04/inconsistencies-in-spains-budget.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29