"...A recent report from Deutsche Bank's Bill Prophet, entitled "Alternative Universe," foretells a story of approaching disaster and even goes so far as to say "the health of the US commercial banking system will inevitably get worse before it gets better. And this has undeniable consequences for the rates market, if not Fed policy."
The reason? Bank balance sheets have hardly shrunk at all. This applies to both commercial and residential real estate.
Says Prophet on RMBS:
Nevertheless, we find it inconceivable that these assets are being marked anywhere close to their recoverable value, and the reality is that commercial bank exposure to them is as large now as it was 12 months ago. And in fact when we look at the entire $2tr portfolio of residential real estate assets on bank balance sheets (which would of course include the home-equity loans shown above), we reach a similar conclusion. Namely, as of the end of Q3-’09, the value of “home mortgage” assets has declined by just 1.6% from the end of ‘08 (see Chart 7). Similar to CRE, these assets could be worth hundreds of billions of dollars less than where they are currently being marked..."
at http://www.businessinsider.com/how-the-us-banking-system-will-inevitably-get-worse-before-it-gets-better-2010-1#total-holdings-at-commercial-banks-are-barely-off-their-bubble-levels-1
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