China Uses Yuan, Gold To Pay For Some Iran Crude

"“China is using its currency, the yuan, and gold to pay for some of its imports of Iranian crude oil, according to Iran trade professionals.

The news underscores how the Islamic Republic is able to alleviate the effect of mounting sanctions, which in turn could ease global oil supply concerns and push oil prices further down.

One Iran trade professional said last week that Chinese oil companies have for many months been using the yuan to pay for some Iranian oil, after many banks refused to handle payments in dollars.

"In return, Iran is using the currency to pay for infrastructure such as roads," the person told Dow Jones Newswires.

According to a person in the shipping industry, China now represents one-third of Iran's oil sales.

European refiners have cut purchases of the Islamic Republic's crude ahead of a planned embargo coming into force this summer; Asian buyers have also reduced imports to avoid being banned from the U.S. financial system.

Iran is also using a local currency, the rupee, to sell some of its crude to India. However, such a payment mechanism tends to be unfavorable for Iran, locking Tehran into captive trade relations with its oil buyers. In addition, there is only so much the Islamic Republic can buy in goods from China and India.

So in addition to the yuan, Iran has also agreed to be paid in gold for some of its oil, the trade professionals say. In one recent case, two Iranian oil tankers heading for China were bartered at sea with their equivalent in the precious metal, one Iran trade professional said…”

at http://ausbullion.blogspot.com/2012/05/china-uses-yuan-gold-to-pay-for-some.html

The CIA's 'Persia House' Has Been Sending Stealth Drones Deep Into Iran For Years

"The RQ-170 Sentinel drone lost over Iran late last year was not the United State's first foray into Iran with the stealth UAV, and the Sentinel was not simply plying the northern border of Afghanistan as officials have maintained.

The doomed flight, where the Iranians claim they brought down the drone electronically, and the U.S. says it went down due to a malfunction, was simply the most recent reconnaissance mission deep into Iran by the CIA in the three years since the missions began.
Joby Warrick and Greg Miller at The Washington Post report that RQ-170s have flown more than 600 miles inside Iran for that long before the most recent incident brought the surveillance program into the limelight.
The effort began with president Bush who committed to increased intelligence on Iran's nuclear program during the final years of his presidency, and has been turning out choice information for years.
The drone operations are one part of a multi-agency effort.
The CIA's Iran Operation Division, known internally as "Persia House," is working with the NSA to pull high quality intelligence out of the Middle East country to offer President Obama the options he'll need to decide if Iran's nuclear program focuses on weapons...."

at  http://www.businessinsider.com/the-cias-persia-house-has-been-sending-stealth-drones-deep-into-iran-for-years-2012-4#ixzz1rZZ0Cuqy

BRICS: Not bound by ‘unilateral’ sanctions on Iran

"India and China insist that US sanctions on Iran's oil industry should not apply to their trade ties with Tehran. All of the BRICS countries agree they are not bound by the "unilateral" sanctions against Iran.
­The statement comes as the trade ministers of the BRICS economies – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – meet ahead of a summit in India.
"I think that we all broadly agree with the proposal, the terminology that was made, that if there are UN Security Council sanctions then we are all bound by that, but if there are sanctions that are imposed by other countries unilaterally, they shouldn't have to apply to us," South Africa's Trade and Industry Minister Rob Davies is cited by Reuters as saying..."

at http://rt.com/news/brics-iran-us-sanctions-684/

US gears up for land operation in Persian Gulf?

"The US is sending an amphibious assault group and a couple of thousand US Marines to the Persian Gulf. With another US carrier making its way to Iran’s doorstep, US military still insist that this is a “regularly scheduled deployment”.
­The Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group is comprised of amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima, amphibious transport dock USS New York, and amphibious dock landing ship USS Gunston Hall. It is also reinforced with an atomic submarine and a marine helicopter squadron.
The group, which is “a versatile sea-based force that can be tailored to a variety of missions,” left port on Tuesday and is heading to the Gulf, the US Navy says.
Over 2,000 US Marines are to come on board Iwo Jima when the group makes a stop in North Carolina.
Many of those marines are veterans of ground combat in Iraq and Afghanistan making their first shipboard deployment, dailypress.com points out.
The US already has an amphibious group with an expeditionary marine unit in the Gulf region. The Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group was deployed there in January, after Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route that allows the delivery of around 20 per cent of the world's oil..."

at http://rt.com/news/us-amphibious-group-land-operation-iran-663/

A Noose Is Tightening As War Looms

"Rothman is the Founder of Cornerstone Analytics. He has been rated #1 for Independent Energy Research by Institutional Investor Magazine since 2006. Rothman consults directly with governments and has attended every OPEC meeting since 1986. Here is what Rothman had to say about the current situation: “A proverbial noose is tightening around Iran’s economic livelihood as seen by a fairly rapid drop in its output and exports. Withholding payments to ship owners for moving Iran’s crude is the latest tactic to squeeze Tehran’s revenue by targeting the logistics side of the export process.”

at http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/27_A_Noose_Is_Tightening_As_War_Looms.html

Joseph Dancy: IEA Report Shows OPEC Spare Capacity Is Diminishing: Embargo against Iran will cut oil output by one million barrels a day

"Jim welcomes back Joe Dancy to discuss the energy sector. Joe notes the recent IEA report citing shrinking spare capacity in OPEC countries, as well as recent unrest in Sudan, Libya, Syria, Nigeria and Yemen leading to supply disruptions..."

at http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/guest-expert/2012/03/26/joseph-dancy/iea-report-shows-opec-spare-capacity-is-diminishing

Is the Threat of Airstrikes against Iran Driving Oil Options Prices Higher?

"Probably. First, some context. Here’s the one-month volatility risk premium in USO options since 2007.



Think of this as an estimate of how richly or cheaply priced options on crude oil are, relative to the actual historical volatility of the asset. Any ratio above 1.00 indicates that option buyers were willing to pay a premium above the value of the volatility subsequently exhibited by crude oil futures. As you can see, the ratio is usually greater than one. When oil prices dropped precipitously in 2008 and oil volatility exploded higher, option buyers made out quite well (the ratio dipped towards 0.75); otherwise, it has generally paid to be a net seller. Notice that the 50-period moving average of this ratio has been above 1.50 since December, which means that oil option premiums have been very rich compared to the volatility of the underlying.
Something is definitely keeping a permanent bid under options on crude – that’s not in doubt. The presumed cause is the threat of airstrikes against Iran. The chart below compares the value of the AIRSTRIKE.IRAN.DEC12 contract on Intrade against the relevant snippet of the USO 1M no-lag VRP.*



Since the start of 2012, it looks like there has been a reasonably tight relationship between the sentiment of crude options markets and that of Intrade participants. The run-up in USO VRP during late January and February coincides with an increase in the price of the airstrike contract..."

at http://condoroptions.com/2012/03/25/is-the-threat-of-airstrikes-against-iran-driving-oil-options-prices-higher/

Report says Israel operating in Iran

"Israeli spies have been operating inside Iran to gather information and evidence about Iran's nuclear program, sources told The Sunday Times.
The British newspaper reported Israel has established a secret base in northern Iraq where it dispatches Special Forces to conduct covert operations and compile intelligence inside Iran..."

at http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2012/03/25/Report-says-Israel-operating-in-Iran/UPI-58601332677814/#ixzz1qECpeZAP

China criticizes US unilateral anti-Iran sanctions

"Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman has criticized the US unilateral sanctions against the Iranian oil sector, saying Beijing’s crude import from the Islamic Republic is “legal.”

"China opposes any country implementing unilateral sanctions on another country according to its domestic law," Hong Lei said at a daily press briefing on Wednesday.

"China legally imports oil from Iran through normal channels in a reasonable and fair manner," he added.

"Beijing imports oil based on the country's economic development needs without violating relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council and undermining the third parties’ and international community's interests," the Chinese official said.

On New Year’s Eve, the United States imposed new sanctions against Iran aimed at preventing other countries from importing Iranian oil and conducting transactions with its central bank.

However, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in a statement on Tuesday that Washington has exempted financial institutions from 11 nations - Belgium, Britain, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain, from new sanctions.

The most important countries which have not been included on the exemption list are China, India and South Korea..."

at http://www.presstv.ir/detail/232682.html

IN HIGH GEAR: Advanced Preparations of U.S.-Israel War Against Iran

"Following the highly scrutinized meeting between President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier this month in Washington, consensus held that Obama had managed to secure assurances from the war-hungry Netanyahu that Israel would delay a military strike against Iran till 2013. That is, till after the November U.S. presidential election.

According to the Israeli daily Maariv, this commitment of Israeli “restraint” had been bought with the sale of U.S. “advanced bunker-busting bombs and long-range refueling planes” to the Israeli Defense Forces, as al-Akhbar (3/8) reported. Needless to say, such advanced weaponry would be required in any Israeli attack on Iran.

“You shall still have your war,” Obama thus seemingly sought to convey to Netanyahu, “but only in due time.”

Since the Obama-Netanyahu summit, however, indications of such Israeli restraint have dissipated. The Israeli dogs of war are not so easily tamed. In fact, in his latest column for Bloomberg (3/19), the Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg reports that talk of striking Iran is once more convulsing through the Israeli political establishment. And according to Goldberg, all such discussions have assumed a rather optimistic bent.

“One conclusion key officials have reached,” Goldberg writes, “is that a strike on six or eight Iranian facilities will not lead, as is generally assumed, to all-out war.”

We learn further that Israeli officials interpret Obama’s claims of “having Israel’s back” as meaning that even in the event of an Israeli strike against Iran in the face of U.S. protest, “Obama would move immediately to help buttress Israel’s defenses against an Iranian counterstrike.”

All this leaves Goldberg to assess that Israel shall ultimately strike Iran. As he writes, “I’m highly confident that Netanyahu isn’t bluffing—that he is in fact counting down to the day when he will authorize a strike against a half-dozen or more Iranian nuclear sites.”

This unnerving assessment mirrors that held by another favored media conduit for Israeli propaganda, Ronen Bergman, who after similarly speaking with senior Israeli leaders earlier this year, concluded in the New York Times Magazine (1/25) that, "Israel will indeed strike Iran in 2012."

Notably, Goldberg’s Bloomberg piece appeared the very day the New York Times (3/19) reported on a secret U.S. war game held earlier this month. The war game reportedly simulated an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. And as the Times reported, the exercise “forecasts that the strike would lead to a wider regional war, which could draw in the United States and leave hundreds of Americans dead.”

(The report did not specify to any detail on the expected regional war unleashed by an Israeli strike. Nor did the paper mention any projection of potential Iranian casualties. But why would they? After all, as U.S. Gen. Tommy Franks averred back in 2002: “We don’t do body counts.”)

And of course, where there is smoke, there is fire..."

at  http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=29942

China, Russia Voice "US In Iran" Ire

"In a number of stories in China's top newspapers today, the US has been slammed for its moves to restrict Iran's oil trade which could see Chinese banks sanctioned. As The People's Daily noted, Hong Lei (a Foreign Ministry spokesperson) warned such unilateral action was not only wrong but could exacerbate the stand-off over Iran's nuclear program. Arguing that China 'imports oil based on its economic development needs' without violating relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council and undermining the third party's and international community's interests, he noted China will not accept the practice of saddling unilateral sanctions on the third country. Adding to this, China Daily notes the typical UN blah-dom of Wang Min's comments of the "more pragmatic importance to be firmly committed to dialogue and negotiations in order to properly solve the Iranian nuclear issue". While China is clearly 'disappointed' in the US efforts, Russia turns the dial to 11 with its comments that the US efforts are inflaming, as Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Tuesday, "Scientists in nearly all countries....are convinced that strikes may slow down the Iranian nuclear program. But they will never cancel it, close it down or eliminate it" warning that Iran will have no option but to develop nuclear weapons should the US strike. Well you can't please all the people all the time eh? Just ask Ben..."

at http://www.zerohedge.com/news/china-russia-voice-us-iran-ire

1001 Moonless Kinetic Nights: Presenting The Windows Of Opportunity For An Iranian Attack

"Following last Friday's majority vote by the Israel Security Council authorizing Iranian "action" when required, answering the "if", the only open question remains "when." As it turns out, based on the following analysis by Rapidan Group, there are only 10 or so distinct 10 day New Moon windows for the remainder of 2012. If one removes the sandstorm prone months of April, July and September, there are 7 periods in which a military strike is realistic. Also CVN 65 is moving at a snail's pace and is just now approaching the Straits of Gibraltar. Since any action will likely not take place unless 3 aircraft carriers are in the vicinity, and because the ICE yesterday instituted ultra-short term trading spike curbs in crude, starting April 1, one can likely eliminate the immediately proximal March 17-27 window. Which leaves six. Our advice would be to buy up OTM calls in Brent in the days just ahead of the start of any such window, as any "surprise" attack will have a uplifting impact on all combustible assets, doubly so for levered ones.

From Rapidan Group

Timing Considerations

Based on press reports, officials see high odds of an attack sometime between 2Q12 and the end of the year, with most pointing to 2Q or 3Q.

If Israel elects to conduct a conventional military strike, the optimal conditions would be moonless and cloudless nights. “Operation Orchard,” Israel’s attack on Syria’s reactor at Al-Kibar on Sep 6, 2007, took place 5 days before the new moon. This suggests windows starting about 5 days before a new moon and ending five days after - see the table below. Low humidity is also ideal, but not required.

Attackers would want to avoid sandstorms, which have afflicted Iran in April, July, and September in recent years. Last year, a large sandstorm in mid-April hit 20 provinces, forcing the shutdown of schools and businesses. Sandstorms are visible and predictable, however, and would be taken into account by planners.

For non-kinetic options, climate is not a consideration to our knowledge. Presumably, they would be tried before kinetic ones and only after leaders were convinced Iran had not yet felt enough pain to compel it to freeze enrichment..."

at  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/1001-moonless-kinetic-nights-presenting-windows-opportunity-iranian-attack

US navy to position three aircraft carriers near Iran

"TEHRAN: Iran will make absolutely no concessions on its nuclear programme, a key lawmaker declared on Sunday amid high geopolitical tensions and ahead of mooted talks with world powers.

“The parliament will never allow the government to go back even one step in its nuclear policy,” Aladin Borujerdi, the head of Iran’s parliamentary foreign policy commission, told the official IRNA news agency.

Iran’s recent announcements that is stepping up uranium enrichment and made its own 20-percent enriched nuclear fuel showed the country “totally masters nuclear science,” he said. “If the P5+1 countries don’t accept the reality of Iran’s nuclear abilities, they will suffer from that,” Borujerdi was quoted as saying.

His comments precede expected talks agreed to by Iran and the P5+1 group of powers — the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany.Iran has formally requested a date and venue for the negotiations, the previous round of which collapsed in Istanbul in January last year.

The Islamic republic has been buffeted in recent months by ramped-up Western economic sanctions. It has also been threatened with possible military action against its nuclear facilities by Israel and the United States.

Throughout, Tehran has maintained that its nuclear programme is purely peaceful, denying Western suspicions — largely echoed in a November report by the International Atomic Energy Agency — that it was conducting military research towards designing nuclear weapons.

Borujerdi told IRNA that the United States and its allies have seen in recent months that Iran’s scientists have managed to make nuclear fuel enriched to 20 percent, among other achievements..."

at    http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-1-98472-US-navy-to-position-three-aircraft-carriers-near-Iran

Gunboat diplomacy: America launches Persian Gulf surge

"Washington is planning to deploy even more ships, subs and choppers to the Persian Gulf despite the fact that it already stations aircraft carriers in the region. This was confirmed by Chief of Naval Operations Jonathan W. Greenert.
­Speaking during a Friday breakfast in Washington, Greenert told reporters about the bold plans to deploy more patrol boats, minesweepers, Sea Stallion helicopters and drone subs – all keeping an eye on Iran..."

at http://rt.com/news/america-persian-gulf-surge-831/

Brent At $126 As Israel Security Cabinet Votes 8 To 6 To Attack Iran

"Looking at the tranquil sea that is the S&P one may be forgiven to ignore the rapid intraday surge in Brent which was up over $3 in a few hours, approaching $126 once again. But why? After all the FOMC minutes were oh so very slightly hawkish, and not to mention that the Fed's scribe Hilsenrath told everyone at best the Fed would proceed with sterilized QE which would leave risk prices untouched. Maybe it has something to do with this. According to Israel's NRG, in a just completed cabinet vote, for the first time Netanyahu has gotten a majority (8 over 6) supporting an Iran attack. NRG also notes that at this point Israel has decided to not wait until the US elections in November before proceeding with sending crude to the stratosphere. From NRG (google translated): "Israeli political sources believe that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a majority Cabinet support Israeli military action against Iran without American approval....He announced that he would not hesitate to perform the operation without the approval of President Obama mentioned the precedent of the decision to attack the Iraqi reactor, Prime Minister Menachem Begin, and with the comments heard yesterday some cabinet ministers say privately that "It sounds like a speech preparation for attack." Political - Security Cabinet 14 ministers. According to estimates, at this stage tend to support Netanyahu and
Barak's approach eight ministers, and six against it (including the traditional opponents octet: Moshe Ya'alon, Dan Meridor, Benny Begin and Eli Yishai)." So... $4.00 gas is just around the corner. As is, probably, $5.00 gas. And $6.00 gas..."

at  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/brent-126-israel-cabinet-votes-8-6-attack-iran

U.S. To Increase Minesweeping Presence in the Persian Gulf

"The United States is planning to substantially expand its forward-deployed minesweeping presence in the Persian Gulf. The U.S. Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday, stating that four minesweepers would be moved to Bahrain, joining eight others, including four UK Royal Navy minesweepers. The current detachment of four minesweeping helicopters will be increased to eight. The paperwork, published in February, calls for the mine countermeasures (MCM) ships to transported to their destination onboard a larger civilian vessel.
In January it was announced that the USS Ponce (LPD 15) would undergo a conversion to an afloat staging base for MCMs -- essentially a mothership that can facilitate and coordinate at-sea and aerial operations. The USS Ponce is expected to arrive in region this summer and should represent an important expansion of capability and capacity above the simple doubling of the U.S. MCM presence discussed in the CNO’s testimony..."

at http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/us-increase-minesweeping-presence-persian-gulf-0

Gag Order? Media Silent As Israeli Warships Head Toward Iran

"Israel is being awfully tight-lipped about two warships spotted in the Suez canal following 4 days of strikes on Gaza.
The exact destination of the ships is unknown due to the secrecy over the deployment but the ships are moving along the path they would take to Iranian waters.
Here is a series of reports highlighting what is known so far.
Press TV reports:

Israeli warships leave Port Said after crossing Suez Canal

Two Israeli warships and a French vessel have reportedly left Port Said north of the Suez Canal after crossing the canal under heavy security.

(Press TV) -According to a report published by Egyptian al-Ahram newspaper on Tuesday, the two vessels and the French ship left the northern Port Said to an unknown destination.
The Suez sailing supervisor Ahmad al-Manhali said that it took 14 hours for the two Israeli warships — INS Lahav and INS Yafo — and Imidisi, an accompanying French vessel, to cross the canal and arrive at Port Said in the north...."

at  http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2012/03/15/israeli-warships-cross-suez-canal-headed-iran-96401/

With The Enterprise Just 4 Days Away From Arrival, A SWIFT Cut Off Of Iran

"Update: as we hit print, we see headlines that the UK will cooperate with the US on bilateral agreement to release oil stocks. Crude down big on the news, which is merely an advance move ahead of almost inevitable war with Iran, simply to make the spike more palatable.

The push to get Iran to do something terminally irrational (now that USS Enterprise in its final tour of duty is almost on location just off the side of CVN-70 Lincoln and CVN-72 Vinson in the Arabian Sea, where the US will shortly have not one, not two, but three aircraft carriers) is now in its final stretch. As AP reported earlier, Iran has been now entirely cut off from the global financial system, as that anchor of international financial transactions, SWIFT, has just taken Iran off the grid. This leaves Iran with just three options for international trade: making gold into a fully convertible currency, barter, or exchanging Rials for Renminbi and other local currencies.

From the AP:

The SWIFT global financial transaction service said Thursday that it was cutting ties with Iranian banks that are subject to European Union sanctions aimed at discouraging the country from developing nuclear weapons.

The action effectively enforces EU sanction because the world's financial transactions are impossible without using SWIFT, and it will go a long way toward isolating Iran financially.

The company's name stands for Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. It is a banking hub crucial to oil, financial transactions and other trades.

In a statement, SWIFT said the EU decision "prohibits companies such as SWIFT to continue to provide specialized financial messaging services to EU-sanctioned banks."

"Disconnecting banks is an extraordinary and unprecedented step for SWIFT," Lazaro Campos, chief executive of SWIFT, said. "It is a direct result of international and multilateral action to intensify financial sanctions against Iran."

In other words: Iran, please do your worst. And just to make it easier, the US has now stacked an entire armada of easy targets in close vicinity, which not even a naive fool can mistake anymore for prewar preparations.

Here is what the naval picture in the Arabian Sea looked like most recently, where courtesy of Stratfor we can see that not only is CVN-65 full steam ahead to its final date with history somewhere off the shores of Iran, but that LHD8 Makin Island crossed the Straits of Hormuz recently. Just because.

Virtually the entire non-parked naval fleet will be in the Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf in the next 4-6 days, where 3 aircraft carriers and one big-deck amphibious warfare ship are just waiting for the order..."

at http://www.zerohedge.com/news/enterprise-just-4-days-away-arrival-swift-cut-iran

Roubini: Attack on Iran Would Send Oil to $200, Spark Recession

"An attack on Iran would send oil prices as high as $200 a barrel and threaten to push the world back into recession, says New York University economist Nouriel Roubini.

Tensions have been building between the West and Tehran over the latter's nuclear ambitions, and concerns are brewing that Israel may be mulling an attack on Iran despite calls from the U.S. to give sanctions a chance.

"If there's an effect on the supply of oil and gas from the Gulf, and production and exports from Iran go for a while to zero, oil could go to $170, $180, $200 a barrel," Roubini tells Foreign Policy magazine.

"If you think about the last three major global recessions, there were all caused by a geopolitical shock in the Middle East that led to spike in oil prices," Roubini adds, referring to the Yom Kippur War in 1973 the Iranian revolution in 1979 and the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, all of which contributed to global economic contractions.
Even if war is avoided, tensions alone are going to push up oil prices, which will take U.S. gasoline prices up with them and dampen the economy.

"I would not underestimate the effect of gasoline today, in a number of U.S. states, being already at $4.00 a gallon — and it could be so in many other states. Psychologically, once you're above the $4 mark, it has an impact on consumer confidence," Roubini says.

Prices rise during the U.S. summer anyway, when driving increases and refineries switch to pricier inputs.

"The higher those oil prices are, the higher the chance that has a negative effect on consumer confidence, on disposable income, and on the economy. And it's not just in the U.S. — the price of oil is very high in Europe and in many other parts of the world," Roubini says..."

at http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Roubini-Attack-Iran-Oil/2012/03/14/id/432485