Ongoing European Crisis to Result in Higher Inflation and Higher Gold Prices – Here’s Why

"On the surface things may appear to be calm, but I don’t think the European crisis is anywhere near its conclusion. Losses still have to be taken from Ireland, Spain, Portugal and possibly even Italy…There are a number of ways out of Europe’s problems. One of them is higher inflation…[which] is going to be very positive for gold… because the central banks will be under pressure to print..."

at http://www.munknee.com/2012/04/ongoing-european-crisis-to-result-in-higher-inflation-and-higher-gold-prices-heres-why/

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Another Failed Grand Plan In Europe

"European Sovereign Yields have been under pressure for most of the last month...seems the market doesn't buy the firewall idea...



The EFSF has committed €200 billion. Depending on how you viewed EFSF, the maximum was €440 billion of funding at the AAA level (which it still has from Moody’s and Fitch). It could have been as much as €500 billion if it wasn’t focused on that maximum rating.

So how did we get a headline of €800 billion?

€200 billion of EFSF money that has already been committed got counted. They can’t commit it again. Yes this is money Europe has committed (more on how they fund it, later) which helped, but it cannot be committed again.

They also included €49 billion and €53 billion of loans already made to Greece under other EU programs as part of the firewall. Again, that €100 billion has already been spent, so it doesn’t really add anything.

Prior to today, the EU had €300 billion of remaining capacity and had spent or committed €300 billion. Now they have €500 billion of free capacity.

Let’s take a deeper look:

Last fall, Greece, Ireland, and Portugal had just over €600 billion of admitted debt (not the guaranteed hidden kind). So far, they have received €300 of EU commitments. Can we assume that a “bailout” is about 50% of a countries debt? Probably not, but it seems that the first round is less than 50%, but as it goes on, the amount grows beyond 50%, but it is eye opening, that 3 countries, with a total of €600 billion of debt, have needed €300 billion of support already – and look likely to need more. Ireland is getting a new extended payment plan. Portugal seems likely to need more. Greece may need more already to deal with the English law bonds, but in any case will likely draw down more.

So this €500 billion that is remaining, has to not only continue to support the existing countries, but in theory needs to deal with Spain and Italy. With €700 billion and €1.6 trillion, that seems dubious, especially once the mechanics are understood, but before we get to that, let’s look at what the EFSF has already done..."

at http://www.zerohedge.com/news/another-failed-grand-plan-europe

On Spain’s coming under the watchful eye of the Troika in 2012

"This is a thematic post, I am also putting outside the paywall because there is a lot of chatter today about Spain needing to tap EU bailout funds this year. The messaging in the analyst community follows the thematic prediction I made in October 2010 about periphery countries missing targets and this creating a renewed crisis in the euro zone. Just to quote briefly to fix on how this will proceed, I wrote On the Troika’s Coming Occupation of the Periphery:

Translation: continue fiscal austerity until you reduce your deficits significantly. If the depression this creates causes you to miss your fiscal targets, redouble your efforts under the watchful eye of the Troika.
Portugal is out making additional cuts and increasing taxes (link in Spanish). Nevertheless, Olli Rehn has already indicated that Portugal runs the risk of not making its 2011 fiscal targets (link in Portuguese). Even Spain, not under an IMF program, will miss fiscal targets.
So, it is only a matter of time before what is happening in Greece happens at a minimum in Portugal and probably in Ireland as well.

While Ireland and Portugal are already in IMF programs, the worry now is that Spain will follow. Let me break down the different threads briefly. Here are the principal stories I am hearing..."

at http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/03/spain-bailout-2012.html

Europe's 'Success Story' Double Dips: Irish Economy Re-Contracts, As Predicted

"Remember Europe's so-called success story - Ireland? Time to scratch it off the list, as the "best performing" PIIG, and "peripheral reform" wunderkind, just reminded everyone that the only true success story in Europe is that other I country - Iceland, after its fourth quarter GDP unexpectedly dropped 0.2%, well below consensus estimates of a 1.0% GDP boost. Odd - recall that back in October, following the announcement that Greece would be allowed to extract a bondholder haircut, initially at 50% and ultimately at 78.5%, we said that "this means that Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy will promptly commence sabotaging their economies (just like Greece) simply to get the same debt Blue Light special as Greece." Looks like Ireland is well on its way to doing just that, and the GDP slide is actually not all that surprising. Next: prepare for more "surprising" GDP misses from Portugal, Spain and, of course, Italy..."

at http://www.zerohedge.com/news/europes-success-story-double-dips-irish-economy-re-contracts-predicted

Uncertain Future for the Euro: The Plight of the Netherlands. Staggering Unemployment in Spain and Greece

"A report by the London-based Lombard Street Research, which says the Netherlands is badly handicapped by euro membership, and as a result the Dutch Freedom Party has called for a return to the Guilder. Leader Geert Wilders has become the first political movement in the euro zone with a large popular base to opt for withdrawal from the single currency. The Freedom Party is a conservative populist party. We do not read Dutch, but the very fact that this information was only picked up by a few sources outside of the Netherlands shows you what managed news is all about.

Needless to say, the Hague disagrees with the report, which puts the cost for subsidizing and bailing out of the six nations in trouble at $3.2 trillion. We set the costs months ago at $4 to $6 trillion. Mr. Wilders’ answer is if they disagree with the report, why don’t they have the guts to hold a referendum? Let the Dutch people decide.

The report says as we have said so often, that the euro zone cannot survive in its current form. Dealing this year with Ireland, Portugal and Greece should be relatively easy by letting them slide away. Spain and Italy have partially been shunted aside and by the time they are dealt with they will be even weaker than they are now. The socialist mind set is to push problems into the future, which only worsens the problems. The big question is will Europe strive for world government and allow it to thoroughly destroy the EU financially and economically?..."

at http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=29817