What's Inside the BLS Magic Black Box?

"Inquiring minds have asked "I'm curious if you can translate the -339 birth/death adjustment this quarter. It seems completely out of context."

I believe I can shed some light on the overall process and the finalized numbers. However, the black box itself is impenetrable.

Here is the process: The BLS takes seasonally unadjusted numbers for jobs and seasonally unadjusted model-derived birth-death numbers and meshes them inside a magic black box. The box slices and dices the numbers, then spits out the seasonally adjusted "establishment number"

As a side note, when tossing the unadjusted numbers inside its black box, rumor has it the BLS employees collectively sing Oh Ho Ho It's Magic. I cannot confirm that rumor officially. Nonetheless, here is a fitting tribute.

In the monthly "Ta Da!" the BLS cleverly gives us the seasonally adjusted commingled result (that's the official monthly establishment number). The BLS also gives us the not seasonally adjusted birth death model number.

It makes as much sense to subtract those numbers as it does to subtract 3 bananas from two oranges, yet people keep trying..."

at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/02/whats-inside-bls-magic-black-box.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29