Monday, October 31, 2011

BOB JANJUAH: The Euro Bailout Is Fiction, And The S&P Is Going To Plunge

"...We all have reams of commentary on the latest eurozone „deal‟ to digest. I want to keep my contribution to a minimum. In summary, this latest round of eurozone shock and awe is, in my view, nothing more than a confidence trick and has possibly even set-up an even worse final outcome. With respect to the Greek debt „write off‟, the bank „recap‟, and the structured credit technology being applied to ESFS, my takeaway is fudge, fiction and fantasy. The eurozone leadership know they can‟t really put in any meaningful amount of new money to fix things, yet are lacking in courage when it comes to forcing proper debt write offs and debt relief, ditto forcing genuine bank recapitalisation and financial sector restructuring, and we have a humiliation and tragedy of epic proportions when we consider that the ESFS leverage „plan‟ seems to rely on convincing a largely poor country where GDP per head is close to USD5k to bailout out a bloc where GDP per head is larger by a factor of x6/x8.

I spend a fair bit of time in China. Chinese policymakers on the whole impress me with their ability to understand what the real issue are. If my experience and read of China is right, Mr Regling is going to come back to Europe with lots of kind and supportive words, but little or no real hard cash. China wants military technology, nuclear technology, access to European corporates (ownership!), and it wants Europe fully on its side vs. the US with respect to human rights, the currency/the trade surplus, and in terms of IMF, WTO, and UN „status‟...."

at http://www.businessinsider.com/bob-janjuah-the-euro-bailout-is-a-con-2011-10?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+businessinsider+%28Business+Insider%29#ixzz1cO4ZlmNj