"December 9th is a do or die date for the EU (European Union) and especially
for the EZ (eurozone). For this reason it is highly likely that, in the run-up
to the EU summit scheduled for this date, policy makers will make announcements
calculated to restore market confidence. Indeed, mere anticipation of such
announcements will tend to provide an upward bias to the market. For this
reason, despite my medium term bearishness regarding the European situation, I
am going into the December 9th summit with only a relatively small core short
exposure.
The ultimate fate of Europe depends on the policies that are revealed on or around December 9th. I am not optimistic. The “solutions” currently being discussed will not work. In particular, the issue of “fiscal union,” which is the focus of current discussions and negotiations, is completely misplaced.
I maintain my view that by April of 2011, the S&P 500 (^SPX) will initiate a downturn that will penetrate recent lows of 1,075 and ultimately test the region between 950 and 1,020 on the S&P 500. Furthermore, I maintain my view that the European financial system and economies could begin to unravel even before the New Year.
PIIGS Are Insolvent With Or Without Fiscal Union
Contrary to popular belief, the fundamental problem faced by the PIIGS is not necessarily the size of their debts – or even of the extent of their present fiscal deficits. If those nations could sustainably grow at a healthy rate, their debt levels would be manageable..."
at http://seekingalpha.com/article/311298-dec-9th-the-beginning-of-the-end-game-for-the-eurozone?source=feed
The ultimate fate of Europe depends on the policies that are revealed on or around December 9th. I am not optimistic. The “solutions” currently being discussed will not work. In particular, the issue of “fiscal union,” which is the focus of current discussions and negotiations, is completely misplaced.
I maintain my view that by April of 2011, the S&P 500 (^SPX) will initiate a downturn that will penetrate recent lows of 1,075 and ultimately test the region between 950 and 1,020 on the S&P 500. Furthermore, I maintain my view that the European financial system and economies could begin to unravel even before the New Year.
PIIGS Are Insolvent With Or Without Fiscal Union
Contrary to popular belief, the fundamental problem faced by the PIIGS is not necessarily the size of their debts – or even of the extent of their present fiscal deficits. If those nations could sustainably grow at a healthy rate, their debt levels would be manageable..."
at http://seekingalpha.com/article/311298-dec-9th-the-beginning-of-the-end-game-for-the-eurozone?source=feed
