Monday, December 12, 2011

ECRI Renews U.S. Recession Call Clashing with Wall Street Expectations

"The U.S. economy is showing signs of life with good economic numbers after the ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) declared on 30 Sep. that the U.S. has already or is about to dip into recession.

WSJ Market Beat noted that even ECRI’s own weekly leading index (WLI) came in at 122.5 with the latest reading, the highest since early September. However, ECRI said it relies on the longer-term WLI (See Chart Below) when it made the dreaded 'R' call over two months ago. (The long-term WLI is available only to ECRI's paying clients, but the chart below was posted at The Big Picture via Jim Bianco on 9 Dec.)

The bottom line is that ECRI says its recession call still stands. Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of ECRI said in a Bloomberg TV interview (Clip Below) on 8 Dec. that
“This one [downturn] is persisting. Give us a year, and you'll see if we are right on our recession call."
Chart Source: The Big Picture via Jim Bianco, 9 Dec. 2011

at http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32063.html