"Dark, lowering financial and economic clouds are, it seems, rolling in from
every direction: the eurozone, the United States, China, and elsewhere. Indeed,
the global economy in 2013 could be a very difficult environment in which to
find shelter.
For starters, the eurozone crisis is worsening, as the euro
remains too strong, front-loaded fiscal austerity deepens recession in many
member countries, and a credit crunch in the periphery and high oil prices
undermine prospects of recovery. The eurozone banking system is becoming
balkanized, as cross-border and interbank credit lines are cut off, and capital
flight could turn into a full run on periphery banks if, as is likely, Greece
stages a disorderly euro exit in the next few months.
CommentsMoreover,
fiscal and sovereign-debt strains are becoming worse as interest-rate spreads
for Spain and Italy have returned to their unsustainable peak levels. Indeed,
the eurozone may require not just an international bailout of banks (as recently
in Spain), but also a full sovereign bailout at a time when eurozone and
international firewalls are insufficient to the task of backstopping both Spain
and Italy. As a result, disorderly breakup of the eurozone remains possible. -
in his latest Project Syndicate article"
at http://nourielroubini.blogspot.com/2012/06/nouriel-roubini-dark-clouds-are.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NourielRoubiniBlog+%28Nouriel+Roubini+Blog%29
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