Natixis considers five criteria it says are necessary for a country’s bond to play a “risk-free” role in an investor’s portfolio, namely:
- have sound public finances (be solvent);
- not have excessive monetary creation which could result in either an abnormally low level of long-term interest rates in the near future or a risk of inflation in the long term;
- not have a chronic external deficit (due to the small size of industry, a chronic problem of competitiveness), which would lead to a balance of payments crisis;
- not have excessive private debt, which would lead to a financial and banking crisis;
- have sufficient potential growth to carry the debt.
Here is their ranking of past and present countries with perceived safe-haven statuses based on the five criteria:"
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