Thursday, September 27, 2012

Spain: a Bank Run Combined with a Sovereign Debt Crisis

"Regarding the recent coordinated central bank moves, the key take-away point is that the ECB and US Federal Reserve attempted “shock and awe” tactics with their latest announcements by throwing out words such as “unlimited” and “open-ended.”

The implication here was that the Central Banks would do everything they could to prop up the financial markets. However, as has been the case with every Central Bank intervention, there are unintended consequences.

The first unintended consequence concerns the fact that both programs are essentially a form of “intervention to infinite.” The problem with this is that the primary driver of stock prices over the last three years has been the anticipation of more monetary stimulus from Central Banks.

Indeed, the New York Fed itself has openly admitted that were it to remove the market moves that occurred around Fed FOMC meetings (the times when the Fed announced new programs or hinted at doing so), the S&P 500 would be at 600 today.

So, by announcing programs that will be on going in nature, both the ECB and the Fed have removed the anticipation of future Central Bank intervention from investors’ psychologies. This could become highly problematic, especially if these latest announcements turn out to be duds.

Speaking of which…

Spain’s ten-year bond yield has broken back above 6%. To see Spain’s sovereign bond yields rising like this after the ECB announced it would essentially provide “unlimited” buying as support is simply stunning. Why would Spain be imploding like this when the ECB announced it would do everything possible to keep Spanish bond yields low?..."

at http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-09-27/spain-bank-run-combined-sovereign-debt-crisis

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