"The competition for Caspian gas supplies is usually seen as a contest between Europe andRussia. China, although acknowledged to play a role, is generally seen to be a marginal player. But at a recent Chatham House event titled Rebalancing the World Energy Markets: The Role of China, Russia and Central Asia it was underscored that Chinese energy demand will have a profound effect on energy markets: in Russia, Central Asia, and Europe.
Gas, in particular, is likely to become increasingly important in China’s energy mix. Even though, as one speaker put it, it could “never win a straight fight” on cost compared to coal, and remains expensive domestically, gas has risen from 2.4% in 2000 to 4.3% in 2010 and is targeted to reach 8.3% in 2015.
This takes place in the context of steadily rising overall demand over the next 20 years, although speakers varied on the expected scale of the demand. One estimate put 2020 (conventional) gas consumption at 230bcm, whilst another suggested 200bcm; one 2035 estimate suggested 550bcm whilst a 2030 baseline estimate was 390bcm, with 500bcm as a maximum estimate. In the Chinese context 30bcm here and there is fairly inconsequential – not so for Russia or Central Asia looking to build new pipelines..."
at http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/9787
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