"Nouriel Roubini : ....serious geopolitical risks loom large. The entire greater Middle East – from the Maghreb to Afghanistan and Pakistan – is socially, economically, and politically unstable. Indeed, the Arab Spring is turning into an Arab Winter. While an outright military conflict between Israel and the US on one side and Iran on the other side remains unlikely, it is clear that negotiations and sanctions will not induce Iran’s leaders to abandon efforts to develop nuclear weapons. With Israel refusing to accept a nuclear-armed Iran, and its patience wearing thin, the drums of actual war will beat harder. The fear premium in oil markets may significantly rise and increase oil prices by 20%, leading to negative growth effects in the US, Europe, Japan, China, India and all other advanced economies and emerging markets that are net oil importers..."
at http://nourielroubini.blogspot.com/2013/02/nouriel-roubini-serious-geopolitical.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NourielRoubiniBlog+%28Nouriel+Roubini+Blog%29
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