Maguire: “The LBMA bullion stocks are thin. For example, the LBMA delivery
conditions were extended from 2 days to 5 days. Why do you think this little
known decision to extend delivery times was made at the request of the bullion
banks? The fact is that the gold market has been in tight supply for some time
now.
There is just very little
physical (gold) for sale in size at these current levels. In the past I
reported leased gold regularly appeared at the (London) fixes, where the Bank of
England would step in at the clearing hour, after the fix, to lend metal to meet
these delivery shortfalls....
“Much less of this is now
happening. Many of these accrued positions, they already can’t be paid back
within the originating terms. So on a short-term basis they have to be
rehypothecated, further rolled out, and they match even further out forwards and
futures (contracts).
These guys are digging an even
deeper hole. Talk about an act of desperation. When viewed from a wholesale
market perspective, it’s absolutely clear this is an act of desperation. There
is only one other alternative -- you buy back these leases.
The first stage we just discussed
is what we’ve already seen. The second is now happening and it’s about to
accelerate, which is going to ignite very large hedge fund short fuel above the
market. Eric, these funds are the bullion banks’ reserve fuel. It will be the
next source of bullion bank short covering, and it’s going to place the funds in
serious trouble. (They will be) left holding the bag.
We could easily see some of these
short funds go down. People say, ‘But they’ve got lots of profits.’ But bear
in mind that with their short profits, instead of crystalizing them, they’ve
continued to add to these shorts to unprecedented levels and at much lower price
levels.
So it doesn’t take much of a gap higher to place some of these funds (seriously) under water. And I expect a very narrow exit window when this happens. Some of these funds are going to be unable to exit. I would absolutely advise your listeners (and readers) to be really careful who you have your investments with.
This (upside) resolution is going
to be disorderly. I believe the only way the Fed can stem this outflow of
bullion is to actually allow the price (of gold) to go back above $1,300.
Western central banks are no longer in a position of strength, and these paper
market games are just desperate acts (at this point).”
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