Forget Glencore: This Is The Real "Systemic Risk" Among The Commodity Traders

"Back in July, long before anyone was looking at Glencore (or Asia's largest commodity trader, Noble Group which we also warned last month was due for a major crash, precisely as happened overnight) which everyone is looking at now that its CDS is trading points upfront and anyone who followed our suggestion last March to go long its then super-cheap CDS can take a few years off, we had a rhetorical question:

Judging by what happened less than two months later, it appears that we have our answer: for now at least, Glencore, which is now flailing and which Bloomberg reported moments ago is set to meet with its bond investors tomorrow (supposedly to allay their fears of an imminent insolvency), is firmly the "answer" to our rhetorical question.

And yet, something stinks.

First, a quick look at Trafigura bonds reveals that the contagion from the Glencore commodity-trader collapse, which "nobody could possibly predict" two months ago and which has rapidly become the market's biggest black swan, has spread and we now have a new contender. And while Trafigura's equity is privately held, it does have publicly-traded bonds. They just cratered:

... sending the yield soaring to junk-bond levels.

As discussed below, this may just be the beginning for the company which, because it does not have publicly traded equity - but has publicly traded debt - has so far managed to slip under the radar.

But who is Trafigura? Only the world's third largest private commodity trader after Vitol and Glencore..."

at http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-29/forget-glencore-real-systemic-risk-among-commodity-traders