"If this unfolds, it will be create shockwaves in a hurry.
February 28 (King World News) – Here is a portion of today’s note from legend Art Cashin: More Musing From The Maven – Over recent years, one of the more popular features of Cashin’s Comments has been the occasional inclusion of observations on the bond market by my good friend, the mortgage maven, Barry Habib. In fact, readers often ask – “Have you had an update from Barry?” Today, I’m happy to say, the answer is – yes! Here’s a bit:
We are going to see 3.04% on the 10-year within the next couple of weeks. That will be the moment of truth. The level of 3.04% matches the top of the 30-year downtrend in yields, as well as the 0% retracement from the highs 4 years ago.
In other words…it’s a big deal if this is convincingly broken to the upside, and strongly suggests that the 10-year will hit 3.80% before summer. That’s a very big change from what we are used to and something that many are not ready for.
I think there is a very strong chance that 3.04% holds…at least for a while…and that rates will back off a bit after reaching this important ceiling. But it is only a matter of time until this is broken. There are too many negative factors weighing on bonds.
Of course we have some inflation fears, including the possibility of wage pressure, as well as a stronger economy. Then there are the negative technical signals – remember when we pointed out that if 2.635%, the next stop was 3.04% – the recent upward channel that yields are on is a strong one..."
at https://kingworldnews.com/if-this-unfolds-it-will-create-shockwaves-in-a-hurry/
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