"The US Office of the Currency Comptroller (OCC) issues a Quarterly Report on the
Derivatives exposure of US Banks and Trust. The report, including historical
archives, can be found
here.The
report includes "all insured U.S. commercial banks and trust companies as well
as other published financial data." So obviously it is not comprehensive of
private funds, and banks without a US subsidiary presence.
The archives
go back to 1998, but it is quite clear that the report is not so interesting
prior to the repeal of Glass-Steagall and the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, also known
as the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000.
The report shows
that JPM has about 80 percent of the gold derivatives in the world on its book,
with HSBC holding the other 20 percent. And in other commodities, JPM holds a
similar position as well as part of their overall $78 trillion derivatives book
which is heavily dominated by interest rate and credit derivatives. But hey,
that's without netting, right? Oh yeah, counter-party risk.
JPM is not
just Too Big to Fail. It IS the market. And 95% of their transactions are
still OTC.
Just for the sake of perspective I did include a chart from
the 2Q 2000 report here which shows both the total derivatives exposure,
leverage and concentrations, and the gold market in particular.
Notice
that some of the players are no longer with us, and of course there is the big
combination of CMB and JPM, when the houses of Morgan and Rockefeller combined
after this report was issued to become the leviathan of international banking.
At that time Chase Manhattan Bank was the biggest player with about $14
Trillion in nominal derivatives with a leverage to total assets of about 43.
The gold market was a three way split amongst Chase, Morgan and Citi, with Fleet
grabbing some scraps.
This is for the derivatives gold market among
commercial banks. At that time the silver market was dominated by a non-bank,
the now almost infamous AIG.
As Ted Butler relates in December,
2003:
"Here's how AIG got to be the biggest trader in the silver market.
When Drexel Burnham Lambert went bankrupt in 1989, the DBL Trading Group was
purchased by AIG, and became the AIG Trading subsidiary, which currently
operates out of offices in Greenwich, Conn. You may recall DBL Trading was the
subsidiary involved in the temporary gold loan default with the central bank of
Portugal at that time.
Before moving over to AIG, the DBL Trading Group
worked at Goldman Sachs (J. Aron) in the early 1980's, and before that began at
ACLI (A.C. Leon Israel). For the sake of full disclosure, and in an interesting
coincidence, I worked at Drexel Burnham Lambert in Miami, for 10 years until
1986, but had no involvement, whatsoever, with DBL Trading."
I
include this not only for historical interest, but also to remind you that the
derivatives market is only one facet of the markets overall, albeit a growing
one that is still about 95% Over The Counter and unregulated. It also still does
not include the futures markets in this data.
Here is an overall chart from the
June 2011 Report. One thing that immediately jumps out is that JPM now has a
total nominal derivatives position of about $78 Trillion.
That's a lot of
nuts.
The other unmistakable point is that besides the increased
concentration, the nominal leverage of Goldman Sachs at 537:1 is that of a hedge
fund and not a commercial bank or trust. Even Morgan Stanley is running at a
modest 26:1..."
at
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