List of Countries By Proven Oil Reserves

at http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/02/list-of-countries-by-proven-oil.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+JessesCafeAmericain+%28Jesse%27s+Caf%C3%A9+Am%C3%A9ricain%29

Negative Annualized Stock Market Returns for the Next 10 Years or Longer? It's Far More Likely Than You Think

"Market cheerleaders keep ratcheting up expected earnings, failing to note that much of the recent earnings growth is simply not sustainable.

Reasons for Unsustainable Earnings Growth

•Much of the recent earnings growth is directly related to federal stimulus that will eventually end.

•Much of the earnings in the financial sector are a mirage, based on assets not marked-to-market and insufficient loan loss reserves. The Fed and the FASB have repeatedly postponed rules changes for the benefit of banks and other financial institutions.

•Earnings in both the financial and nonfinancial sectors have margins outside historical norms, based on very low headcounts and outsourcing..."

at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/02/negative-annualized-stock-market.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29

Fed Succeeds in Fostering Massive Speculation in Junk Bonds and Equities

"Another day, another market high. The longer this goes on, the bigger the next crash. In the meantime the Fed is openly bragging about its efforts even though Bernanke Warns of "Rapid and Painful Response to a Looming Fiscal Crisis"..."


at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/02/fed-succeeds-in-fostering-massive.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29

Insider Selling To Buying Ratio: 434x

"A modest pick up in insider buying this week as 16 insider purchases for $1.7 million worth of stock put recent non-existence insider purchasing to shame. The biggest buying was seen in GE and Caterpillar, which two cumulative purchases for $800k accounted for nearly half of the buying in the week ended February 4. On the other side, it is relentless selling as usual: 126 insider sales amounted to $749 million worth of holding dispositions, with the core of the selling as usual focused on the usual suspects: MSFT ($154 million), QCOM ($73 million), Google ($69 million), GameStop ($60 million) and FCX ($30 million). This is a major pick up in the rate of selling compared to January, and represents a double from the last tracked number of $373 million for the week of January 22..."


at http://www.zerohedge.com/article/insider-selling-buying-ratio-434x?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

Marc Faber : the only sound currencies are hard currencies like gold, silver

"Marc Faber : ...Well, I wrote first about gold in 1998 when it was below $300 and then the low was at $252 an ounce in '99, and since then, I have been advising people to accumulate some gold. So, right now, obviously the price has gone up and we had the 10 year bull market, so I am a bit more cautious. But in general, because of the money printing I was referring to earlier, I don't think that there are any sound currencies anymore, paper currencies, and that the only sound currencies are hard currencies like gold, silver, platinum and palladium...."


at http://marcfaberchannel.blogspot.com/2011/02/marc-faber-only-sound-currencies-are.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MarcFaberBlog+%28Marc+Faber+Blog%29

Understanding and quantifying contagion

"Fear of contagion across asset classes is again stalking European sovereign bond markets. This column discusses how shocks to bank stocks spread to non-financial stocks in 2007 and 2008. It finds that equity fire sales by mutual funds had a surprisingly large and devastating effect on the price of non-financial stocks. Could the sale of bonds trigger a similar reaction?..."

at http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/6081

What's Inside the BLS Magic Black Box?

"Inquiring minds have asked "I'm curious if you can translate the -339 birth/death adjustment this quarter. It seems completely out of context."

I believe I can shed some light on the overall process and the finalized numbers. However, the black box itself is impenetrable.

Here is the process: The BLS takes seasonally unadjusted numbers for jobs and seasonally unadjusted model-derived birth-death numbers and meshes them inside a magic black box. The box slices and dices the numbers, then spits out the seasonally adjusted "establishment number"

As a side note, when tossing the unadjusted numbers inside its black box, rumor has it the BLS employees collectively sing Oh Ho Ho It's Magic. I cannot confirm that rumor officially. Nonetheless, here is a fitting tribute.

In the monthly "Ta Da!" the BLS cleverly gives us the seasonally adjusted commingled result (that's the official monthly establishment number). The BLS also gives us the not seasonally adjusted birth death model number.

It makes as much sense to subtract those numbers as it does to subtract 3 bananas from two oranges, yet people keep trying..."

at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/02/whats-inside-bls-magic-black-box.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29

Future Money Trends On Why Gold Is The Money Of Kings, And Debt Is The Money Of Slaves

"The folks at Future Money Trends have released another comprehensive video clip which summarizes the key aspects of the gold price thesis (which should be all too clear to our readers, who have been following it since $800). At 6 minutes long, virtually anyone can afford to take the time and hear it out, which we certainly urge now that we once again have increasing chatter that QE3 is around the corner (those $4 trillion in deficit funding pieces of paper won't monetize themselves). That alone is sure to send gold again in play: after all the biggest jump in the precious metal last year occurred only after the "incredulous" ones realized that Bernanke was not at all kidding about his infinite dilution quest (yes, the Fed will do anything to save the banking masters)..."


at http://www.zerohedge.com/article/future-money-trends-why-gold-money-kings-and-debt-money-slaves?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

Guest Post: The Great Global Debt Prison

"...Our economy, our culture, our entire world, is built upon debt. No one ever asked us if that’s how we wanted it, it is simply how the system was designed when we came into it. Many of us have lived our entire lives under the assumption that debt is a necessary function of daily commerce and a valuable driver of successful society. Most households in America operate at a steep loss, trapped in constantly building cycles of liability and interest. There are even widely held schools of economic thought that are centered completely on the production and utilization of nothing but debt. Only recently have many people begun to ask themselves what the tangible benefits are (if any) in being dependent on debt based finance.

After careful examination, it becomes evident that debt does not fuel economy, it suffocates it. It does not nurture growth, it stunts and poisons it. Extreme debt is not a fundamental organ in a body of commerce; it is an aberration, a spreading cancer which disrupts the circulation of healthy trade. Debt is, in large part, unnecessary.

Of course, debt can be very useful if you are the controller or determining overseer of a system, especially if you wish to centralize and maintain power over that system. The tactical wielding of debt has been used by elites for centuries as a means to imprison the masses, or to create an atmosphere of endless dependency. Let’s take a look at what debt really is, and how it is being used against the average American today…"

at http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-great-global-debt-prison?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

Sovereign Credibility and Bank Runs

"In the midst of the financial crisis of 2008, governments helped to prevent bank runs by guaranteeing bank debts. Yet as sovereign solvency itself becomes an issue, such guarantees quickly lose their value. If Ireland provides a rule of thumb, bank runs can be expected once sovereign credit default swap yields pass 3%. The figure above shows that when Irish government CDS yields first passed 3% in early 2009, foreign deposits fled the country. This happened again in late 2010. Now that Spanish CDS yields have broken the 3% threshold, there is reason to be concerned about the stability of Spanish bank deposits as well..."

at http://blogs.cfr.org/geographics/2011/01/05/bank-runs/

Danger of E.U. and North Africa Bank Runs 2011

"This is a warning to prepare for potential stealth bank runs cascading from North Africa and Ireland through to EU regional banking centers.

Stealth bank runs are the unrecognized and perilous serpent lurking presently below the European financial surface. They prey on slower moving archaic bond vigilantes and anyone else swimming in these dangerous uncharted waters.

Investors need to fully appreciate that a modern bank run looks and operates differently than what is depicted in the movies and what we most likely expect to occur!

For starters, it isn't the individual depositor lining up, it's now Corporate CFOs or Treasurers at their terminal en masse!

Secondly, it isn't driven by local depositors; it is now driven internationally by Corporate Finance committees!

Thirdly, there are no telltale line-ups at bank doors. It is stealth, which will happen in an unexpected electronic 'flash crash' panic blur!

Today, a triggering event will initiate global 'key strokes' that will move unprecedented amounts of money within hours.

The Council of Foreign Relations just released a surprising report entitled: Sovereign Credibility and Bank Runs..."

at http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article26039.html

How Banks and Investors Are Starving the Third World Into Political Crisis

"Underlying the sudden, volatile uprising in Egypt and Tunisia is a growing global crisis sparked by soaring food prices and unemployment. The Associated Press reports that roughly 40 percent of Egyptians struggle along at the World Bank-set poverty level of under $2 per day. Analysts estimate that food price inflation in Egypt is currently at an unsustainable 17 percent yearly. In poorer countries, as much as 60 to 80 percent of people's incomes go for food, compared to just 10 to 20 percent in industrial countries. An increase of a dollar or so in the cost of a gallon of milk or a loaf of bread for Americans can mean starvation for people in Egypt and other poor countries..."


at http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article26080.html

FABER: EXPECT EQUITY CORRECTION, COMMODITY RALLY, NEW CRISIS

"In a recent Bloomberg interview Marc Faber says equity markets about set to correct. He believes global inflation is causing instability and should lead to higher oil prices. Faber believes emerging markets could decline as much as 30% from current levels and that developed markets are likely to outperform. Ultimately, Faber is still very bearish about the long-term as he expects the Fed’s incessant intervention in markets to cause another crisis..."


at http://pragcap.com/faber-expect-equity-correction-commodity-rally-new-crisis

CHART OF THE DAY: THE COLLAPSING LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE

"As I mentioned earlier today, this morning’s job’s report was likely exactly what the market wanted to see. It’s the perfect mix of some growth, but not enough to spook the Fed. It’s horrible for Main Street, on the other hand, as the jobless figures remain staggeringly high. And of course, the mainstream media is spinning the 36,000 new jobs as a positive because the unemployment rate fell. Unfortunately, the reason for the decline is simple. The labor force participation rate is collapsing as job searchers simply give up and are deemed by the BLS as no longer being part of the workforce:..."

at http://pragcap.com/chart-of-the-day-the-collapsing-labor-force-participation-rate

Geithner Gone Wild: Treasury Entertains 100 Year and GDP-Linked Bonds to Fill New $2.4 Trillion "Demand"

"...A dazzling array of "solutions" are then presented to fill the engineered void, in which we find 40, 50 even 100 year bonds, callable coupons, floating rate bills (to reduce rollover risk) and even GDP-linked bonds (because the BLS is so spot-on):..."



at http://www.zerohedge.com/article/geithner-gone-wild-treasury-entertains-100-year-and-gdp-linked-bonds-fill-new-24-trillion-de?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

Even Donald Trump Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming

"In a shocking new interview, Donald Trump has gone farther than he ever has before in discussing a potential economic collapse in America.  Using phrases such as "you’re going to pay $25 for a loaf of bread pretty soon" and "we could end up being another Egypt", Trump explained to Newsmax that he is incredibly concerned about the direction our economy is headed..."

at http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/even-donald-trump-is-warning-that-an-economic-collapse-is-coming

Pissed Off!: 67 Percent Of Americans Are Dissatisfied With The Size And Influence Of Major Corporations

"...Not only that, but the latest Chicago Booth/Kellogg School Financial Trust Index shows that Americans have very little trust in the financial system at this point.

The following are some of the key findings from their most recent report....

*Only 26 percent of Americans trust the nation's financial system.

*Only 13 percent of Americans trust big corporations.

*Only 16 percent of Americans trust the stock market.

*Only 43 percent of Americans trust the banks..."

at http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/pissed-off-67-percent-of-americans-are-dissatisfied-with-the-size-and-influence-of-major-corporations

Moodys Warns U.S. May Get Credit Rating Downgrade

"Don Miller writes: The United States' AAA credit rating may be at risk sooner than previously thought as the nation fails to deal with its growing debt, Moody's Investors Service warned last week.

Moody's said December's extension of the Bush-era tax cuts, combined with results from the November elections, may lead to further gridlock in Congress, increasing its doubts about the federal government's determination to reduce its debt..."

at http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article26003.html

It Sounds Like George Soros Is Agreeing With Meredith Whitney On The Muni Problem

"Billionaire hedge funder George Soros, speaking to Maria Baritoromo on CNBC, said today that the Muni bond crisis will be this year's big "drama."

Soros compares the muni situation to Europe, where local governments can't print their own money.

Of course, Meredith Whitney predicted a massive wave of muni defaults.

He also said that the Euro crisis is now in the process of being resolved, but that the euro has clearly had the opposite effect as intended with weaker countries coming down, and the strong getting stronger..."
at http://www.businessinsider.com/george-soros-the-muni-crisis-will-be-the-drama-of-this-year-2011-1#ixzz1CjxnZcL1

Housing Armageddon: 12 Facts Which Show That We Are In The Midst Of The Worst Housing Collapse In U.S. History

"The following are 12 facts which show that we are in the midst of the worst housing collapse in U.S. history....

#1 Approximately 11 percent of all homes in the United States are currently standing empty.

#2 The rate of home ownership in the United States has dropped like a rock. At this point it has fallen all the way back to 1998 levels.

#3 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller index, U.S. home prices fell 1.3 percent in October and another 1 percent in November. In fact, November represented the fourth monthly decline in a row for U.S. housing prices. Many economists are now openly using the term "double-dip" to describe what is happening to the housing market.

#4 The number of homes that were actually repossessed reached the 1 million mark for the first time ever during 2010.

#5 According to RealtyTrac, a total of 3 million homes were repossessed by mortgage lenders between January 2007 and August 2010. This represents a huge amount of additional inventory that somehow must be sold...1

at http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/housing-armageddon-12-facts-which-show-that-we-are-in-the-midst-of-the-worst-housing-collapse-in-u-s-history