Global Economy, Financial Markets and International Politics

Sunday, October 25, 2020

BofA: Fed Will Use Digital Dollars To Unleash Inflation, Universal Basic Income And Debt Forgiveness

at https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bofa-fed-will-use-digital-dollars-unleash-inflation-universal-basic-income-and-debt

Cascend: "This Is The Most Important Chart Of The 2020 Election"

"This is the same data, but as the complete form which suits data scientists and investors best: our Electoral College daily probability heat map

It is a very clear way to see the daily changes in election probabilities, particularly how major events change the probability landscape and which states cause the changes
Each of the columns is a day (ending October 18th)
Each row is a state, with the height of the state’s row/cells determined by the relative number of electoral votes (i.e. California’s row height is much higher than Maine)
This gives an easy visual reading for Electoral College voting likelihood
Blue for Biden, Red for Trump
The color intensity is based on the win/lose spread – white is “undecided” (exactly 50/50)
You can easily see how events in the 2020 election impact daily voter sentiment for the two candidates
Data is based on our consumer sentiment technology"

at https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cascend-most-important-chart-2020-election

Value Investing Legend Sees Bubble "Like No Other" Bursting In "Weeks Or Months"

"Back in June, the generally cheerful investing icon Jeremy Grantham unleashed fire and brimstone, taking his $7.5BN portfolio to a net short position for the first time since the financial crisis, and summarizing his dire assessment of the current unprecedented situation simply by saying "this will end badly."

Doubling down on his apocalyptic message, the one-time value investing guru told CNBC at the time that the US stock market is in a unprecedented bubble and investing in it is "simply playing with fire."

"I have been completely amazed," the veteran bearish investor said in an interview Wednesday on CNBC.
"It is a rally without precedent - the fastest in this time ever and the only one in the history books that takes place against a background of undeniable economic problems."

His advice to an entire generation of young daytraders jumping into the market now was to sell U.S. stocks, buy emerging market equities and “throw the key away” for a few years, he said, adding "this is becoming the fourth real McCoy bubble of my career."

at https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/value-investing-legend-sees-bubble-no-other-bursting-weeks-or-months

Saudi Arabia Is Suffering The Consequences Of Its Failed Oil Price War

"Authored by Simon Watkins via OilPrice.com,

Nine months on from Saudi Arabia’s second major oil price war in the last five years, more negative consequences are manifesting themselves. Aside from the irrevocably damaged core relationship with the U.S., the permanent distrust of international investors, and the further alienation of many of its fellow OPEC members, Saudi Arabia is now beginning to discover the true depth and breadth of damage that it has done to its own economy, which will endure for many years to come..."

at https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/saudi-arabia-suffering-consequences-its-failed-oil-price-war

US Signs Commitment With Israel To Uphold Military Edge Over Gulf States

"Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Potential F-35 sales to Gulf states have driven US officials to take extra steps to guarantee Israel’s military superiority over its neighbors, known as the Qualitative Military Edge (QME).

On Thursday, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz met at the Pentagon and signed a joint declaration affirming Washington’s commitment to ensure Israel’s QME.

“I want to state, again, how committed we are to Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge when it comes to defense sales, and our commitment to Israel’s security, which has been longstanding and it’s guaranteed and ironclad,” Esper said.

Details of the declaration are not clear, and it may be largely symbolic since maintaining Israel’s QME is already mandated by US law. A source from the meeting told The Jerusalem Post that an agreement was formulated to further Israeli acquisitions of US weapons.

The US sale of F-35 fighter jets to the UAE that is rumored to be part of Abu Dhabi’s normalization agreement with Israel was initially objected to by Israeli officials. But now, Israel could be angling to get some new weapons out of the deal. In September, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu submitted a wishlist of advanced weaponry to President Trump worth $8 billion.

The F-35 sale has met resistance in Congress, with upholding Israel’s QME being a top priority on both sides of the aisle. A group of bipartisan lawmakers introduced a bill in the House that would effectively give Israel veto powers over US arms sales to the Middle East..."

at https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-signs-commitment-israel-uphold-military-edge-over-gulf-states

Watch US Navy Stealth Destroyer Conduct First Missile Test

at https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/watch-us-navy-stealth-destroyer-conduct-first-missile-test

The Destruction Of The Euro

at https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/destruction-euro

Doug Casey On Why The 2020s Will Likely Be the Most Turbulent Decade in 250 Years

at https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/doug-casey-why-2020s-will-likely-be-most-turbulent-decade-250-years

Visualizing All Of Earth's Satellites: Who Owns Our Orbit?

at https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/visualizing-all-earths-satellites-who-owns-our-orbit

Sunday, October 18, 2020

US Budget Deficit Triples To Record $3.1 Trillion In 2020 As US Spends 90% More Than It Collects

"Those who have been following the record surge in US public debt (excluding the roughly $100 trillion in off-balance sheet obligations), which exploded by $3 trillion in the three months following the covid shutdowns and which just hit an all time high $27.1 trillion this week, will be all too aware that the US budget deficit this year - and every year after - will be staggering.

Sure enough, in the latest just released deficit report, the Treasury announced that in September the US burned through another $124.6BN, which while modestly better than the $200.1 billion deficit reported in August, was a whopping 50% more than the $82.8 billion deficit last September.

Specifically according to the Treasury, in August, government outlays were $497.8 billion, up $74 billion from the $423.3 billion spent in August, and a whopping 71% more than the $291 billion the US spent last September...

... while receipts rebounded from the $223.2 billion received in August to $373.2 billion, and effectively identical to the $374 billion collected last September (the question of why anyone still pays taxes in a time of helicopter money, when the Fed simply purchases whatever debt the Treasury issues, remains)..."

at https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/budget-deficit-hits-record-21-trillion-fiscal-2020-us-spends-90-more-it-collects

Pentagon School To Focus Half Its Curriculum On China, Esper Announces

"Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said on Thursday that he tasked a Pentagon-funded university to focus half of its curriculum on China. The move is a testament to the shift in the US military’s focus from terrorism to so-called “great power competition,” as outlined in the 2018 National Defense Strategy.

“As part of our top-10 goal to focus the department on China, I directed the National Defense University to refocus its curriculum by dedicating 50 percent of the coursework to China by academic year 2021,” Esper said at an event hosted by the Heritage Foundation.

The National Defense University is a higher-learning facility run by the Pentagon that offers graduate programs mostly to members of the US military. “I also tasked the military services to make the People’s Liberation Army [China’s military] the pacing threat in our professional schools, programs and training,” the Pentagon chief said.

Esper also warned of the threat China and Russia pose to US global hegemony. “Our strategic competitors China and Russia are attempting to erode our hard-earned gains,” he said.

The former Raytheon lobbyist also touted a new plan to increase the fleet of the US Navy that Esper has dubbed “Battle Force 2045.” The plan calls for the Navy to have a 500 ship fleet by 2045. Currently, the US Navy has just under 300 battle-ready ships.

The Pentagon released its annual report on China’s military in September. The report says China has the world’s largest navy and has “an overall battle force of approximately 350 ships and submarines.”

Despite having more ships, China’s navy is vastly smaller than Washington’s in terms of tonnage. One example of this is the number of aircraft carriers each nation has, with the US having eleven aircraft carriers, while China only has two..."

at https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pentagon-school-focus-half-its-curriculum-china-esper-announces

Taiwan Must Prepare To Deter Chinese Amphibious Landing: National Security Advisor O'Brien

at https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/taiwan-must-prepare-strategies-deter-pla-amphibious-landing-national-security-advisor

UK Fighter Jets Intercept Russian Bombers Off Scotland Coast

at https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uk-fighter-jets-intercept-russian-bombers-scotland-coast

China’s ambassador to Canada Cong Peiwu issued a threat to Ottawa

"Canada and China are once again in a diplomatic battle over a range of issues — this time with Beijing threatening retaliation over Canada's acceptance of activists from Hong Kong who are seeking political asylum..."

at https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/chinese-ambassador-makes-outrageous-threat-hong-kong-based-canadians

In "Blunt Message" China Warns It Might Detain Americans If US Prosecutes PLA-Linked Academics

"After federal agents this summer moved to detain and charge multiple visiting Chinese academics for their undisclosed links to the People’s Liberation Army while at US research universities or laboratories (often involving outright deception to federal agencies), Beijing has escalated things with its own unprecedented warning.

A WSJ exclusive published Saturday cites several sources to say Chinese government officials are threatening to arrest American nationals working or residing in China in response to the DOJ prosecutions of Chinese military-linked researchers. The report cites a series of warnings communicated via "multiple channels" since the summer, including directly to the US Embassy in Beijing..."

at https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/chinas-blunt-message-americans-could-be-detained-if-us-prosecutes-pla-linked-academics

Beijing Views US Consulates As "Hostile Forces", Orders Monitoring Of Diplomats: Leaked Documents

"Authored by Eva Fu via The Epoch Times,

Chinese authorities see U.S. consulates as “hostile forces” that conduct “infiltration and sabotage” activities on Chinese soil and have ordered officials to monitor key U.S. diplomats, according to a leaked document obtained by The Epoch Times..."

at https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/beijing-views-us-consulates-hostile-forces-orders-monitoring-diplomats-leaked