Friday, June 25, 2010

Gold’s Rise And The Dow’s Fate

"I can tell you that time has been moving, whereas price has not been moving as fast as should be expected (based on the time movement). What does this mean? If these two patterns are actually fractals, then price has to catch up with time, and that should mean strong rallies (shorter time periods) could be coming up. As I am writing this, gold is up $20 the last couple of hours. It is going to be interesting.
Is the big picture in gold, as shown above, consistent with what is going on in the world economy today and with what is expected going forward? Consider the following:

Debt levels world-wide are at historically high levels
These debts are holding back the world’s economy, and will continue to do so for a significant number of years. (see here for more on this)
These debt levels are probably going to bring down the current world monetary system.
All fiat currencies are depreciating, as measured against gold, and this will increase as more countries struggle to meet their debt obligations
Tangible assets like gold and silver are under-valued as compared to intangible assets like equities and bonds. This is illustrated by the Dow/gold ratio. (see here for more on this

When one takes into account the points above, then it is hard not to agree that the big picture in gold, illustrated above, is probably accurate.
If the world’s debt levels are at all-time high levels and are likely to hold back the world’s economy, then this should affect the economics of listed companies and the real values of companies listed on the great stock exchanges of the world.
This does not bode well for Dow and other listed stocks. They will very likely lose real value (as measured in terms of gold, silver and other commodities) over the next couple of years and beyond."

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