Showing posts with label double dip. Show all posts
Showing posts with label double dip. Show all posts

Thursday, March 22, 2012

Europe's 'Success Story' Double Dips: Irish Economy Re-Contracts, As Predicted

"Remember Europe's so-called success story - Ireland? Time to scratch it off the list, as the "best performing" PIIG, and "peripheral reform" wunderkind, just reminded everyone that the only true success story in Europe is that other I country - Iceland, after its fourth quarter GDP unexpectedly dropped 0.2%, well below consensus estimates of a 1.0% GDP boost. Odd - recall that back in October, following the announcement that Greece would be allowed to extract a bondholder haircut, initially at 50% and ultimately at 78.5%, we said that "this means that Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy will promptly commence sabotaging their economies (just like Greece) simply to get the same debt Blue Light special as Greece." Looks like Ireland is well on its way to doing just that, and the GDP slide is actually not all that surprising. Next: prepare for more "surprising" GDP misses from Portugal, Spain and, of course, Italy..."

at http://www.zerohedge.com/news/europes-success-story-double-dips-irish-economy-re-contracts-predicted

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Bad Economic News

"Just consider some of the most recent economic news....
*The number of U.S. home foreclosures set a record for the second consecutive month in May. How can the U.S. housing industry be recovering when the number of Americans being foreclosed on continues to set all-time records?
*As of March, U.S. banks had an inventory of approximately 1.1 million foreclosed homes, up 20 percent from a year ago. Instead of working their way through the huge backlog of unsold homes, U.S. banks continue to pile up a massive inventory of foreclosed homes at a staggering pace.
*According to figures from the U.S. Commerce Department, housing starts in the United States fell 10 percent in May, the biggest decline since March 2009. The data also revealed that single-family home starts suffered the biggest drop since 1991. There is already a massive glut of unsold homes on the market, so builders simply do not think it is profitable to build many new homes right now.
*Officials now tell us that the cost of "fixing" Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-backed mortgage companies that last year bought or guaranteed the vast majority of all U.S. home loans, will be at least $160 billion and could grow as high as $1 trillion. The twin pillars of the U.S. mortgage industry have become financial black holes that the U.S. government endlessly pours massive amounts of cash into. That is not a good sign.
*Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are to be delisted from the New York Stock Exchange because their stock prices have been trading under $1 per share for more than 30 trading days. The truth is that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would have completely imploded by now if the U.S. government had not decided to step in and bail them out.
*The average duration of unemployment in the United States has risen to an all-time high. Not only are a ton of Americans out of work, they can't find work for a very, very long time once they are unemployed.
*For Americans younger than 25 years of age, the unemployment rate is 18.8%. But even those young Americans that can find employment often find themselves working in very low paying service jobs.
*Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says that the U.S. unemployment rate is likely to stay "high for a while". Considering how badly Bernanke has been doing his job, it would be really nice if we could add just one more person to the unemployment rolls.
*According to one new study, approximately 21 percent of children in the United States are living below the poverty line in 2010 - the highest rate in 20 years. There are hundreds of thousands of American children on the streets each night, and yet we continue to insist that we are the greatest country in the world.
*For the first time in U.S. history, more than 40 million Americans are on food stamps, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that number will go up to 43 million Americans in 2011. How many tens of millions of Americans have to be on food stamps before we officially say that we are in a depression
"*According to the Wall Street Journal, the debates have begun inside the Fed about what it should do in the event of a "double dip" recession. If they are already debating what to do during the next economic downturn that means it is probably a foregone conclusion.
*If you were alive when Christ was born and spent one million dollars every single day from then until now, you still would not have spent one trillion dollars by now. But somehow the U.S. government is now over 13 trillion dollars in debt. According to a U.S. Treasury Department report to Congress, the U.S. national debt will top $13.6 trillion this year and climb to an estimated $19.6 trillion by 2015.
*It is being projected that the U.S. national debt will grow to surpass our gross domestic product in 2012. Needless to say, that is a really, really bad sign.
*The total of all government, corporate and consumer debt in the United States is now equal to 360 percent of GDP. At no point during the Great Depression did we ever even come close to such a figure.
But things may be even worse in Europe right now. Unfortunately for the U.S., when Europe experiences an economic collapse it will devastate the American economy as well.
The economic news coming out of Europe lately has been extremely alarming....
*George Soros says that a European recession next year is "almost inevitable". Considering how much access George Soros has to inside information, the fact that he is so pessimistic about Europe is a very troubling thing indeed.
*A report by the Bank for International Settlements says that the debt crisis hitting southern Europe resembles the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis. Is history about to repeat itself?
*Moody's has downgraded Greece government bond ratings into junk territory, citing the risks inherent in the rescue package that the rest of the eurozone has put together for them. Soon Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Romania and a number of other European nations could have their debt downgraded as well.
*The U.K.'s new Office for Budget Responsibility has announced that the U.K. economy was more damaged by the recent financial crisis than previously admitted, and that it may never fully recover. But the same could be said for many other nations across the world as well.
*21.5% of all working-age people in the U.K. do not have a job. It seems like almost every country has a shortage of jobs these days.
*New U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron is warning that Britain's "whole way of life" is about to be significantly disrupted for years by the most drastic public spending cuts in a generation. In fact, severe austerity measures being implemented all across Europe could make this one of the most "interesting" European summers in ages.
*Spanish banks are borrowing record amounts of money from the European Central Bank as Spain's financial institutions are finding it increasingly difficult to acquire funds in international capital markets. But the truth is that it isn't just Spanish banks that are facing a liquidity squeeze - the entire world is heading for a massive credit crunch."

at http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/bad-economic-news

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Builder Confidence Flags, Housing Double Dip

"The double dip in housing has caught up to another important player. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped sharply in June.
Recently, mortgage application dropped another week-the fifth in a row. The federal tax credit for new and existing home buyers has expired and has not been extended. High unemployment continues to weigh on the buyers market. RealtyTrac says that foreclosures moved above 300,000 for the 15th month in a row.
In related news which indicates that consumers are saving and not buying a single thing, retail sales collapsed last month. People have gone to the mattresses, gone to ground.The National Association of Home Builders reported that its index for June fell to 17 in June, down an extraordinary five points in just 30 days. NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said
“As today’s HMI data shows, builders still remain very cautious and are aware that several factors could impede the nascent housing recovery, including serious problems in obtaining financing for the production of housing, faulty appraisal practices and competition from short sales and foreclosed properties.”

at http://247wallst.com/2010/06/15/builder-confidence-flags-housing-double-dip/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2FRyNm+%2824%2F7+Wall+St.%29

Sunday, June 13, 2010

Double dip’ decline seen for housing

"In the short to near term, I expect a double dip. This is the logical aftermath of the sugar shot from the Federal first time buyer tax credit. It borrowed buyers from the future, and we are now going into that future. Also we are not too far from the end of the traditional SoCal buying season. I have already seen asking prices reduced 5% or so in May from April."

at http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2010/06/12/double-dip-decline-seen-for-housing/68513/

Saturday, June 12, 2010

Greece Collapsing Into Recession

"Looking at the most recent OECD economic indicators, Greece makes by far the weakest showing in all the Eurozone while further appearing to be clearly quickly collapsing into recession.
Industrial production has fallen off a cliff, consumer confidence has plunged to historic lows, business confidence has made a sudden reversal and the leading index is turning down fast.
Worse yet, Greece may be just the leading edge with Ireland, the U.K., Italy, Spain and Portugal show some initial signs of weakening leading trends.
Is the double-dip here? For Greece the answer appears certain but we will have to wait to see whether elsewhere in Europe and the U.S. eroded similarly.
The pattern is clear though. For those who argued (and still argue) that solving the ills of an epic debt bubble with more debt was sheer folly may soon see their outlook born out."

at http://paper-money.blogspot.com/

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Soros Says "Crisis Far From Over, We Have Just Entered Act 2"

"Billionaire investor George Soros said “we have just entered Act II” of the crisis as Europe’s fiscal woes worsen.


“The collapse of the financial system as we know it is real, and the crisis is far from over,” Soros said today at a conference in Vienna. “Indeed, we have just entered Act II of the drama.”
Concern that Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis may spread sent the euro to a four-year low against the dollar on June 7 and has wiped out more than $4 trillion from global stock markets this year. Europe’s debt-ridden nations have to raise almost 2 trillion euros ($2.4 trillion) within the next three years to refinance maturing bonds and fund deficits, according to Bank of America Corp.
“When the financial markets started losing confidence in the credibility of sovereign debt, Greece and the euro have taken center stage, but the effects are liable to be felt worldwide,” Soros said.
 
at http://www.zerohedge.com/article/soros-says-crisis-far-over-we-have-just-entered-act-2?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29