El-Erian On The Bad Jobs Number: 'THE IMPLICATIONS GO BEYOND ECONOMICS'

"PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian is shaken by today's disastrous jobs report.
Writing on FT.com, El-Erian listed off the disappointing metrics of the report, but he warns of much worse.

These disappointments partly reflect changing seasonal factors, including the prior impact of this winter’s unusually mild weather. But there is something much larger in play, and the implications go beyond economics; they influence key elements of the political narrative for the upcoming presidential and congressional elections.

The report demonstrates that firms "lack conviction" to hire for "expected future business."
Why? Uncertainty about everything, writes El-Erian:

American consumers, as a group, still carry too much debt and have to cope with higher oil prices. The prospects for exports, which have grown markedly, are gradually dimming now that the rest of the world is slowing. Meanwhile, policymakers have yet to find a way to deal properly with a year-end fiscal cliff, the result of Washington’s repeated inability to design coherent fiscal policy.

This demand uncertainty compounds worrisome structural impediments to growth.

His evidence that we already face structural problems: 5 million long-term unemployed; 9-month average time out of work; 25% unemployment for 16-19 year olds; and 12.6% unemployment for those without high school degrees..."

at http://www.businessinsider.com/el-erian-jobs-miss-2012-4?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+clusterstock+%28ClusterStock%29#ixzz1rIEleWaC

READ MORE

Manipulating the yuan debate dangerous game

"Some members of the U.S. congress are playing a dangerous game by manipulating the Chinese yuan debate for domestic political gains.
These congressmen, prompted by a need to appease American workers frustrated by the loss of millions of jobs in the global financial crisis, and to woo constituencies in elections to be held later this year, are resorting to their old trick of blaming everything on China.
They claim China's foreign exchange policy is costing America jobs and threaten to impose tough trade sanctions against Chinese imports.
But they choose to ignore the fact that an appreciating yuan cannot rebalance Sino-U.S. trade or help create jobs for American workers. Both trade imbalance and high unemployment are deep-rooted economic problems that can only be addressed when the United States implements some painful yet necessary structural reforms.
These congressmen claim they are the white knights defending the interest of the American people, but in fact, they are nothing more than a bunch of baby-kissing politicians trying to swing voters by manipulating the yuan debate.
They only served to divert the public attention from the much more serious domestic economic problems, which are caused in part by their incompetence.
It is really dangerous that these irresponsible remarks, played up by some sensational U.S. media outlets, will inevitably mislead the American public, and poison the atmosphere of Sino-U.S. economic cooperation.
The fact is that China now serves as the third-largest export market for American goods and it will probably become the biggest one sooner than expected. A growing Chinese economy has brought substantial benefits to American workers.
When they are manipulating the yuan debate,these American politicians may make some short-term political gains, but they put the long-term Sino-U.S. bilateral relations in jeopardy."

at http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/indepth/2010-06/13/c_13348628.htm