China Warns Against Joint Exercises in South China Seas

"Chinese officials in Beijing are warning against any joint military patrols or exercises between Vietnam and the Philippines in the disputed South China Sea.

Vietnam and Philippines military officials have discussed conducting joint exercises in the disputed region in meetings earlier this month. The exercises could include joint patrols of the Spratly Islands, which both countries and China claim as their own.

In Beijing, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei warned against any exercises in the Spratlys, which China calls Nansha.

China has indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Islands, he said, and the adjacent waters. Hong also said China is opposed to foreign countries’ violation of China’s sovereign rights and interests.

There have been a series of run-ins involving fishermen, military patrols, and other vessels in the disputed region in recent months, increasing tension over the competing territorial claims. Philippine and Vietnamese officials have discussed establishing a communication hotline for possible disputes, as well as sharing shipbuilding expertise..."

at   http://www.voanews.com/english/news/China-Warns-Against-Joint-Exercises-in-South-China-Seas-144881075.html

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US gears up for land operation in Persian Gulf?

"The US is sending an amphibious assault group and a couple of thousand US Marines to the Persian Gulf. With another US carrier making its way to Iran’s doorstep, US military still insist that this is a “regularly scheduled deployment”.
­The Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group is comprised of amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima, amphibious transport dock USS New York, and amphibious dock landing ship USS Gunston Hall. It is also reinforced with an atomic submarine and a marine helicopter squadron.
The group, which is “a versatile sea-based force that can be tailored to a variety of missions,” left port on Tuesday and is heading to the Gulf, the US Navy says.
Over 2,000 US Marines are to come on board Iwo Jima when the group makes a stop in North Carolina.
Many of those marines are veterans of ground combat in Iraq and Afghanistan making their first shipboard deployment, dailypress.com points out.
The US already has an amphibious group with an expeditionary marine unit in the Gulf region. The Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group was deployed there in January, after Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route that allows the delivery of around 20 per cent of the world's oil..."

at http://rt.com/news/us-amphibious-group-land-operation-iran-663/

Joseph Dancy: IEA Report Shows OPEC Spare Capacity Is Diminishing: Embargo against Iran will cut oil output by one million barrels a day

"Jim welcomes back Joe Dancy to discuss the energy sector. Joe notes the recent IEA report citing shrinking spare capacity in OPEC countries, as well as recent unrest in Sudan, Libya, Syria, Nigeria and Yemen leading to supply disruptions..."

at http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/guest-expert/2012/03/26/joseph-dancy/iea-report-shows-opec-spare-capacity-is-diminishing

North Korean Rocket Trajectory Revealed

"Yesterday afternoon, Barack Obama who is currently in South Korea, briefly was within bullet range (if behind bulletproof glass) of North Korea when he stood on the edge of the DMZ separating the two feuding countries. A few minutes later he left and told the world that "Bad behaviour will not be rewarded" referring to the imminent launch of North Korea's Unha-3 rocket scheduled for a test launch in April. He added that "I will also note that every time North Korea has violated an international resolution, the Security Council resolution, it has resulted in further isolation, tightening of sanctions, stronger enforcement. I suspect that will happen this time as well." Alas, we doubt that Obama's warnings will have much of an impact and that in a few weeks NK will go ahead and hit the launch button undeterred, in the process forcing Japan to scramble its Aegis destroyers and take other countermeasures as discussed last week, in case the missile "veers of course." But just what is the trajectory? Courtesy of North Korea Tech, we now know the secret path the North Korean rocket is expected to take. All we can say is there better not be strong Westerly winds..."

at http://www.zerohedge.com/news/north-korean-rocket-trajectory-revealed

U.S. intelligence sees global water conflict risks rising

"Fresh water supplies are unlikely to keep up with global demand by 2040, increasing political instability, hobbling economic growth and endangering world food markets, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment released on Thursday.
The report by the office of the Director of National Intelligence said that areas including South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa will face major challenges in coping with water problems that could hinder the ability to produce food and generate energy.
The report said that a “water war” was unlikely in the next 10 years, but that the risk of conflict would grow with global water demand likely to outstrip current sustainable supplies by 40 percent by 2030.
“Beyond 10 years we did see the risk increasing,” a senior U.S. intelligence official told reporters. “It depends upon what individual states do and what actions are taken right now to work water management issues between states.”
The official declined to discuss the risks for specific countries, but in the past water disputes have contributed to tensions between rivals including nuclear-armed India and Pakistan, Israel and the Palestinians, and Syria and Iraq.
The report, drafted principally by the Defense Intelligence Agency and based on a classified national intelligence estimate, said that water in shared basins would increasingly be used by states to pressure their neighbors..."

at http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/4809

China, Russia Voice "US In Iran" Ire

"In a number of stories in China's top newspapers today, the US has been slammed for its moves to restrict Iran's oil trade which could see Chinese banks sanctioned. As The People's Daily noted, Hong Lei (a Foreign Ministry spokesperson) warned such unilateral action was not only wrong but could exacerbate the stand-off over Iran's nuclear program. Arguing that China 'imports oil based on its economic development needs' without violating relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council and undermining the third party's and international community's interests, he noted China will not accept the practice of saddling unilateral sanctions on the third country. Adding to this, China Daily notes the typical UN blah-dom of Wang Min's comments of the "more pragmatic importance to be firmly committed to dialogue and negotiations in order to properly solve the Iranian nuclear issue". While China is clearly 'disappointed' in the US efforts, Russia turns the dial to 11 with its comments that the US efforts are inflaming, as Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Tuesday, "Scientists in nearly all countries....are convinced that strikes may slow down the Iranian nuclear program. But they will never cancel it, close it down or eliminate it" warning that Iran will have no option but to develop nuclear weapons should the US strike. Well you can't please all the people all the time eh? Just ask Ben..."

at http://www.zerohedge.com/news/china-russia-voice-us-iran-ire

1001 Moonless Kinetic Nights: Presenting The Windows Of Opportunity For An Iranian Attack

"Following last Friday's majority vote by the Israel Security Council authorizing Iranian "action" when required, answering the "if", the only open question remains "when." As it turns out, based on the following analysis by Rapidan Group, there are only 10 or so distinct 10 day New Moon windows for the remainder of 2012. If one removes the sandstorm prone months of April, July and September, there are 7 periods in which a military strike is realistic. Also CVN 65 is moving at a snail's pace and is just now approaching the Straits of Gibraltar. Since any action will likely not take place unless 3 aircraft carriers are in the vicinity, and because the ICE yesterday instituted ultra-short term trading spike curbs in crude, starting April 1, one can likely eliminate the immediately proximal March 17-27 window. Which leaves six. Our advice would be to buy up OTM calls in Brent in the days just ahead of the start of any such window, as any "surprise" attack will have a uplifting impact on all combustible assets, doubly so for levered ones.

From Rapidan Group

Timing Considerations

Based on press reports, officials see high odds of an attack sometime between 2Q12 and the end of the year, with most pointing to 2Q or 3Q.

If Israel elects to conduct a conventional military strike, the optimal conditions would be moonless and cloudless nights. “Operation Orchard,” Israel’s attack on Syria’s reactor at Al-Kibar on Sep 6, 2007, took place 5 days before the new moon. This suggests windows starting about 5 days before a new moon and ending five days after - see the table below. Low humidity is also ideal, but not required.

Attackers would want to avoid sandstorms, which have afflicted Iran in April, July, and September in recent years. Last year, a large sandstorm in mid-April hit 20 provinces, forcing the shutdown of schools and businesses. Sandstorms are visible and predictable, however, and would be taken into account by planners.

For non-kinetic options, climate is not a consideration to our knowledge. Presumably, they would be tried before kinetic ones and only after leaders were convinced Iran had not yet felt enough pain to compel it to freeze enrichment..."

at  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/1001-moonless-kinetic-nights-presenting-windows-opportunity-iranian-attack

Report: Russia sends special forces, counterterrorism units to Syria

"Moscow has sent elite units of Russian marines and special-operations forces to Syria to conduct "anti-terrorism" missions in the country, according to reports by Al Arabiya.
The troops were reportedly aboard two Russian warships that arrived at the country's naval base in the Syrian port city of Tartus on Monday, the news agency reports.
The ships joined up with “a Russian naval reconnaissance and surveillance ship" already anchored in Tartus, the report adds, citing sources within opposition forces in Syria.
The Russian base in Tartus is the country's only naval installation outside the borders of the former Soviet Union. A Russian naval squadron conducted a port visit in January, just as violence between rebel forces and government troops loyal to Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad was coming to a head.
The port call was interpreted by many regional observers as a show of support by Moscow for the Assad regime..."

at  http://thehill.com/blogs/defcon-hill/policy-and-strategy/216741-report-russia-sends-special-forces-counterterrorism-units-to-syria-

US navy to position three aircraft carriers near Iran

"TEHRAN: Iran will make absolutely no concessions on its nuclear programme, a key lawmaker declared on Sunday amid high geopolitical tensions and ahead of mooted talks with world powers.

“The parliament will never allow the government to go back even one step in its nuclear policy,” Aladin Borujerdi, the head of Iran’s parliamentary foreign policy commission, told the official IRNA news agency.

Iran’s recent announcements that is stepping up uranium enrichment and made its own 20-percent enriched nuclear fuel showed the country “totally masters nuclear science,” he said. “If the P5+1 countries don’t accept the reality of Iran’s nuclear abilities, they will suffer from that,” Borujerdi was quoted as saying.

His comments precede expected talks agreed to by Iran and the P5+1 group of powers — the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany.Iran has formally requested a date and venue for the negotiations, the previous round of which collapsed in Istanbul in January last year.

The Islamic republic has been buffeted in recent months by ramped-up Western economic sanctions. It has also been threatened with possible military action against its nuclear facilities by Israel and the United States.

Throughout, Tehran has maintained that its nuclear programme is purely peaceful, denying Western suspicions — largely echoed in a November report by the International Atomic Energy Agency — that it was conducting military research towards designing nuclear weapons.

Borujerdi told IRNA that the United States and its allies have seen in recent months that Iran’s scientists have managed to make nuclear fuel enriched to 20 percent, among other achievements..."

at    http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-1-98472-US-navy-to-position-three-aircraft-carriers-near-Iran

Global Systemic Economic Crisis: Stagnation in Europe, US Relapse into Recession. Crash of Markets and Financial Institutions: The five devastating storms in summer 2012 at the heart of the world geopolitical swing

"...Therefore, in LEAP/E2020’s view, five devastating storms will mark the summer of 2012 and thus accelerate the process of world geopolitical swing:

. US relapse into recession against the background of European stagnation and BRICS slowdown
. dead end for the central banks and interest rate increases
. storm on the foreign exchange and Western sovereign debt markets
. Iran, the war « too far »
. new crash in the markets and financial institutions...."

at  http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=29824

Gunboat diplomacy: America launches Persian Gulf surge

"Washington is planning to deploy even more ships, subs and choppers to the Persian Gulf despite the fact that it already stations aircraft carriers in the region. This was confirmed by Chief of Naval Operations Jonathan W. Greenert.
­Speaking during a Friday breakfast in Washington, Greenert told reporters about the bold plans to deploy more patrol boats, minesweepers, Sea Stallion helicopters and drone subs – all keeping an eye on Iran..."

at http://rt.com/news/america-persian-gulf-surge-831/

The Sino-Russian Alliance: Challenging America’s Ambitions in Eurasia

"Famously predicted by Zbigniew Brzezinski, the rapprochement between Russia and China can be traced back several years. In this article, first published in 2007, Nazemroaya analyses the successive stages of a historic process consistently driven by the same anti-hegemonic principles that underpinned the two countries’ common stance on Syria at the UNSC. Today, the alliance between the two Eurasian giants is Washington’s worst nightmare come true, of which, ironically, the United States may well be the unintentional architect..."

at http://www.voltairenet.org/The-Sino-Russian-Alliance

U.S. To Increase Minesweeping Presence in the Persian Gulf

"The United States is planning to substantially expand its forward-deployed minesweeping presence in the Persian Gulf. The U.S. Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday, stating that four minesweepers would be moved to Bahrain, joining eight others, including four UK Royal Navy minesweepers. The current detachment of four minesweeping helicopters will be increased to eight. The paperwork, published in February, calls for the mine countermeasures (MCM) ships to transported to their destination onboard a larger civilian vessel.
In January it was announced that the USS Ponce (LPD 15) would undergo a conversion to an afloat staging base for MCMs -- essentially a mothership that can facilitate and coordinate at-sea and aerial operations. The USS Ponce is expected to arrive in region this summer and should represent an important expansion of capability and capacity above the simple doubling of the U.S. MCM presence discussed in the CNO’s testimony..."

at http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/us-increase-minesweeping-presence-persian-gulf-0

Gag Order? Media Silent As Israeli Warships Head Toward Iran

"Israel is being awfully tight-lipped about two warships spotted in the Suez canal following 4 days of strikes on Gaza.
The exact destination of the ships is unknown due to the secrecy over the deployment but the ships are moving along the path they would take to Iranian waters.
Here is a series of reports highlighting what is known so far.
Press TV reports:

Israeli warships leave Port Said after crossing Suez Canal

Two Israeli warships and a French vessel have reportedly left Port Said north of the Suez Canal after crossing the canal under heavy security.

(Press TV) -According to a report published by Egyptian al-Ahram newspaper on Tuesday, the two vessels and the French ship left the northern Port Said to an unknown destination.
The Suez sailing supervisor Ahmad al-Manhali said that it took 14 hours for the two Israeli warships — INS Lahav and INS Yafo — and Imidisi, an accompanying French vessel, to cross the canal and arrive at Port Said in the north...."

at  http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2012/03/15/israeli-warships-cross-suez-canal-headed-iran-96401/

With The Enterprise Just 4 Days Away From Arrival, A SWIFT Cut Off Of Iran

"Update: as we hit print, we see headlines that the UK will cooperate with the US on bilateral agreement to release oil stocks. Crude down big on the news, which is merely an advance move ahead of almost inevitable war with Iran, simply to make the spike more palatable.

The push to get Iran to do something terminally irrational (now that USS Enterprise in its final tour of duty is almost on location just off the side of CVN-70 Lincoln and CVN-72 Vinson in the Arabian Sea, where the US will shortly have not one, not two, but three aircraft carriers) is now in its final stretch. As AP reported earlier, Iran has been now entirely cut off from the global financial system, as that anchor of international financial transactions, SWIFT, has just taken Iran off the grid. This leaves Iran with just three options for international trade: making gold into a fully convertible currency, barter, or exchanging Rials for Renminbi and other local currencies.

From the AP:

The SWIFT global financial transaction service said Thursday that it was cutting ties with Iranian banks that are subject to European Union sanctions aimed at discouraging the country from developing nuclear weapons.

The action effectively enforces EU sanction because the world's financial transactions are impossible without using SWIFT, and it will go a long way toward isolating Iran financially.

The company's name stands for Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. It is a banking hub crucial to oil, financial transactions and other trades.

In a statement, SWIFT said the EU decision "prohibits companies such as SWIFT to continue to provide specialized financial messaging services to EU-sanctioned banks."

"Disconnecting banks is an extraordinary and unprecedented step for SWIFT," Lazaro Campos, chief executive of SWIFT, said. "It is a direct result of international and multilateral action to intensify financial sanctions against Iran."

In other words: Iran, please do your worst. And just to make it easier, the US has now stacked an entire armada of easy targets in close vicinity, which not even a naive fool can mistake anymore for prewar preparations.

Here is what the naval picture in the Arabian Sea looked like most recently, where courtesy of Stratfor we can see that not only is CVN-65 full steam ahead to its final date with history somewhere off the shores of Iran, but that LHD8 Makin Island crossed the Straits of Hormuz recently. Just because.

Virtually the entire non-parked naval fleet will be in the Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf in the next 4-6 days, where 3 aircraft carriers and one big-deck amphibious warfare ship are just waiting for the order..."

at http://www.zerohedge.com/news/enterprise-just-4-days-away-arrival-swift-cut-iran

The Geopolitics of Shifting Defense Expenditures

"The shift in global defense spending associated with the global economic crisis is accompanied by a deeper and more fundamental geographic change. A market report published Thursday remarked upon the shift from defense spending in the developed world (particularly Europe) to the developing world as fiscal austerity in the West takes hold. Indeed, upon returning from a trip to China, Indonesia’s defense minister announced Wednesday that his country might soon begin domestic licensed production of modern Chinese anti-ship missiles, once the purview of much more developed military powers. This comes close on the heels of the publication Wednesday of the annual edition of the Military Balance by the International Institute of Strategic Studies, which suggests that cumulative defense spending by Europe may, for the first time, be overtaken by such spending in the Asia-Pacific region (it has already converged in recent years).
It is now commplace to refer to the Asia-Pacific as "the future." The value of trans-Pacific trade has outstripped trans-Atlantic trade for decades now. The only remaining global superpower is also -- not coincidentally -- uniquely native to both oceans compared with both traditional European and emerging Asian powers. Stratfor has long noted that the events of two decades ago marked not only the end of the Soviet Union and the Cold War but also the European era of nearly half a millennium in which Europe was the center of the global system.
This reflects a geographic shift and necessarily has military implications, but defense spending is merely a symptom..."

at http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/geopolitics-shifting-defense-expenditures

Roubini: Attack on Iran Would Send Oil to $200, Spark Recession

"An attack on Iran would send oil prices as high as $200 a barrel and threaten to push the world back into recession, says New York University economist Nouriel Roubini.

Tensions have been building between the West and Tehran over the latter's nuclear ambitions, and concerns are brewing that Israel may be mulling an attack on Iran despite calls from the U.S. to give sanctions a chance.

"If there's an effect on the supply of oil and gas from the Gulf, and production and exports from Iran go for a while to zero, oil could go to $170, $180, $200 a barrel," Roubini tells Foreign Policy magazine.

"If you think about the last three major global recessions, there were all caused by a geopolitical shock in the Middle East that led to spike in oil prices," Roubini adds, referring to the Yom Kippur War in 1973 the Iranian revolution in 1979 and the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, all of which contributed to global economic contractions.
Even if war is avoided, tensions alone are going to push up oil prices, which will take U.S. gasoline prices up with them and dampen the economy.

"I would not underestimate the effect of gasoline today, in a number of U.S. states, being already at $4.00 a gallon — and it could be so in many other states. Psychologically, once you're above the $4 mark, it has an impact on consumer confidence," Roubini says.

Prices rise during the U.S. summer anyway, when driving increases and refineries switch to pricier inputs.

"The higher those oil prices are, the higher the chance that has a negative effect on consumer confidence, on disposable income, and on the economy. And it's not just in the U.S. — the price of oil is very high in Europe and in many other parts of the world," Roubini says..."

at http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Roubini-Attack-Iran-Oil/2012/03/14/id/432485

Germany's Geopolitical Strategy

"...Germany's current strategy is to preserve the European Union and its relationship with France while drawing Russia closer into Europe. The difficulty of this strategy is that Germany's trade policies are difficult for other European countries to manage, including France. If Germany faces an impossible situation with the European Union, the second strategic option would be a three-way alliance, with a modified European Union or perhaps outside of the EU structure. If France decides it has other interests, such as its idea of a Mediterranean Union, then a German-Russian relationship becomes a real possibility.
A German-Russian relationship would have the potential to tilt the balance of power in the world. The United States is currently the dominant power, but the combination of German technology and Russian resources -- an idea dreamt of by many in the past -- would become a challenge on a global basis. Of course, there are bad memories on both sides, and trust in the deepest sense would be hard to come by. But although alliances rely on trust, it does not necessarily have to be deep-seated trust.
Germany's strategy, therefore, is still locked in the EU paradigm. However, if the EU paradigm becomes unsupportable, then other strategies will have to be found. The Russo-German relationship already exists and is deepening. Germany thinks of it in the context of the European Union, but if the European Union weakens, Russia becomes Germany's natural alternative."

at http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33581.html