The US Is Stockpiling A Huge Cache Of Weapons In Israel

"The U.S. military has stockpiled $800 million worth of weapons in Israel and the amount is growing, according to a U.S. Congressional report and reported by Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu of the Israeli media network Arutz Sheva.

The War Reserves Stock Allies-Israel (WRSA-I) program is run by the United States European Command (EUCOM) and includes missiles, armored vehicles and artillery ammunition.

The equipment was transferred to Israel "for use by the United States and, with U.S. permission, for use by Israel in emergency situations."

The U.S. gave such approval to the Israel Defense Force during the Second Lebanon War in 2006, according to the report.

Israel has promoted "strategic cooperation"  since the 1980s by inviting the placement of U.S. arms and equipment at Israeli bases for use in wartime..."

at http://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-is-stockpiling-a-huge-cache-of-weapons-in-israel-2012-4#ixzz1stSLjwVh

Is the Threat of Airstrikes against Iran Driving Oil Options Prices Higher?

"Probably. First, some context. Here’s the one-month volatility risk premium in USO options since 2007.



Think of this as an estimate of how richly or cheaply priced options on crude oil are, relative to the actual historical volatility of the asset. Any ratio above 1.00 indicates that option buyers were willing to pay a premium above the value of the volatility subsequently exhibited by crude oil futures. As you can see, the ratio is usually greater than one. When oil prices dropped precipitously in 2008 and oil volatility exploded higher, option buyers made out quite well (the ratio dipped towards 0.75); otherwise, it has generally paid to be a net seller. Notice that the 50-period moving average of this ratio has been above 1.50 since December, which means that oil option premiums have been very rich compared to the volatility of the underlying.
Something is definitely keeping a permanent bid under options on crude – that’s not in doubt. The presumed cause is the threat of airstrikes against Iran. The chart below compares the value of the AIRSTRIKE.IRAN.DEC12 contract on Intrade against the relevant snippet of the USO 1M no-lag VRP.*



Since the start of 2012, it looks like there has been a reasonably tight relationship between the sentiment of crude options markets and that of Intrade participants. The run-up in USO VRP during late January and February coincides with an increase in the price of the airstrike contract..."

at http://condoroptions.com/2012/03/25/is-the-threat-of-airstrikes-against-iran-driving-oil-options-prices-higher/

Report says Israel operating in Iran

"Israeli spies have been operating inside Iran to gather information and evidence about Iran's nuclear program, sources told The Sunday Times.
The British newspaper reported Israel has established a secret base in northern Iraq where it dispatches Special Forces to conduct covert operations and compile intelligence inside Iran..."

at http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2012/03/25/Report-says-Israel-operating-in-Iran/UPI-58601332677814/#ixzz1qECpeZAP

IN HIGH GEAR: Advanced Preparations of U.S.-Israel War Against Iran

"Following the highly scrutinized meeting between President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier this month in Washington, consensus held that Obama had managed to secure assurances from the war-hungry Netanyahu that Israel would delay a military strike against Iran till 2013. That is, till after the November U.S. presidential election.

According to the Israeli daily Maariv, this commitment of Israeli “restraint” had been bought with the sale of U.S. “advanced bunker-busting bombs and long-range refueling planes” to the Israeli Defense Forces, as al-Akhbar (3/8) reported. Needless to say, such advanced weaponry would be required in any Israeli attack on Iran.

“You shall still have your war,” Obama thus seemingly sought to convey to Netanyahu, “but only in due time.”

Since the Obama-Netanyahu summit, however, indications of such Israeli restraint have dissipated. The Israeli dogs of war are not so easily tamed. In fact, in his latest column for Bloomberg (3/19), the Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg reports that talk of striking Iran is once more convulsing through the Israeli political establishment. And according to Goldberg, all such discussions have assumed a rather optimistic bent.

“One conclusion key officials have reached,” Goldberg writes, “is that a strike on six or eight Iranian facilities will not lead, as is generally assumed, to all-out war.”

We learn further that Israeli officials interpret Obama’s claims of “having Israel’s back” as meaning that even in the event of an Israeli strike against Iran in the face of U.S. protest, “Obama would move immediately to help buttress Israel’s defenses against an Iranian counterstrike.”

All this leaves Goldberg to assess that Israel shall ultimately strike Iran. As he writes, “I’m highly confident that Netanyahu isn’t bluffing—that he is in fact counting down to the day when he will authorize a strike against a half-dozen or more Iranian nuclear sites.”

This unnerving assessment mirrors that held by another favored media conduit for Israeli propaganda, Ronen Bergman, who after similarly speaking with senior Israeli leaders earlier this year, concluded in the New York Times Magazine (1/25) that, "Israel will indeed strike Iran in 2012."

Notably, Goldberg’s Bloomberg piece appeared the very day the New York Times (3/19) reported on a secret U.S. war game held earlier this month. The war game reportedly simulated an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. And as the Times reported, the exercise “forecasts that the strike would lead to a wider regional war, which could draw in the United States and leave hundreds of Americans dead.”

(The report did not specify to any detail on the expected regional war unleashed by an Israeli strike. Nor did the paper mention any projection of potential Iranian casualties. But why would they? After all, as U.S. Gen. Tommy Franks averred back in 2002: “We don’t do body counts.”)

And of course, where there is smoke, there is fire..."

at  http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=29942

1001 Moonless Kinetic Nights: Presenting The Windows Of Opportunity For An Iranian Attack

"Following last Friday's majority vote by the Israel Security Council authorizing Iranian "action" when required, answering the "if", the only open question remains "when." As it turns out, based on the following analysis by Rapidan Group, there are only 10 or so distinct 10 day New Moon windows for the remainder of 2012. If one removes the sandstorm prone months of April, July and September, there are 7 periods in which a military strike is realistic. Also CVN 65 is moving at a snail's pace and is just now approaching the Straits of Gibraltar. Since any action will likely not take place unless 3 aircraft carriers are in the vicinity, and because the ICE yesterday instituted ultra-short term trading spike curbs in crude, starting April 1, one can likely eliminate the immediately proximal March 17-27 window. Which leaves six. Our advice would be to buy up OTM calls in Brent in the days just ahead of the start of any such window, as any "surprise" attack will have a uplifting impact on all combustible assets, doubly so for levered ones.

From Rapidan Group

Timing Considerations

Based on press reports, officials see high odds of an attack sometime between 2Q12 and the end of the year, with most pointing to 2Q or 3Q.

If Israel elects to conduct a conventional military strike, the optimal conditions would be moonless and cloudless nights. “Operation Orchard,” Israel’s attack on Syria’s reactor at Al-Kibar on Sep 6, 2007, took place 5 days before the new moon. This suggests windows starting about 5 days before a new moon and ending five days after - see the table below. Low humidity is also ideal, but not required.

Attackers would want to avoid sandstorms, which have afflicted Iran in April, July, and September in recent years. Last year, a large sandstorm in mid-April hit 20 provinces, forcing the shutdown of schools and businesses. Sandstorms are visible and predictable, however, and would be taken into account by planners.

For non-kinetic options, climate is not a consideration to our knowledge. Presumably, they would be tried before kinetic ones and only after leaders were convinced Iran had not yet felt enough pain to compel it to freeze enrichment..."

at  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/1001-moonless-kinetic-nights-presenting-windows-opportunity-iranian-attack

Brent At $126 As Israel Security Cabinet Votes 8 To 6 To Attack Iran

"Looking at the tranquil sea that is the S&P one may be forgiven to ignore the rapid intraday surge in Brent which was up over $3 in a few hours, approaching $126 once again. But why? After all the FOMC minutes were oh so very slightly hawkish, and not to mention that the Fed's scribe Hilsenrath told everyone at best the Fed would proceed with sterilized QE which would leave risk prices untouched. Maybe it has something to do with this. According to Israel's NRG, in a just completed cabinet vote, for the first time Netanyahu has gotten a majority (8 over 6) supporting an Iran attack. NRG also notes that at this point Israel has decided to not wait until the US elections in November before proceeding with sending crude to the stratosphere. From NRG (google translated): "Israeli political sources believe that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a majority Cabinet support Israeli military action against Iran without American approval....He announced that he would not hesitate to perform the operation without the approval of President Obama mentioned the precedent of the decision to attack the Iraqi reactor, Prime Minister Menachem Begin, and with the comments heard yesterday some cabinet ministers say privately that "It sounds like a speech preparation for attack." Political - Security Cabinet 14 ministers. According to estimates, at this stage tend to support Netanyahu and
Barak's approach eight ministers, and six against it (including the traditional opponents octet: Moshe Ya'alon, Dan Meridor, Benny Begin and Eli Yishai)." So... $4.00 gas is just around the corner. As is, probably, $5.00 gas. And $6.00 gas..."

at  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/brent-126-israel-cabinet-votes-8-6-attack-iran

Gag Order? Media Silent As Israeli Warships Head Toward Iran

"Israel is being awfully tight-lipped about two warships spotted in the Suez canal following 4 days of strikes on Gaza.
The exact destination of the ships is unknown due to the secrecy over the deployment but the ships are moving along the path they would take to Iranian waters.
Here is a series of reports highlighting what is known so far.
Press TV reports:

Israeli warships leave Port Said after crossing Suez Canal

Two Israeli warships and a French vessel have reportedly left Port Said north of the Suez Canal after crossing the canal under heavy security.

(Press TV) -According to a report published by Egyptian al-Ahram newspaper on Tuesday, the two vessels and the French ship left the northern Port Said to an unknown destination.
The Suez sailing supervisor Ahmad al-Manhali said that it took 14 hours for the two Israeli warships — INS Lahav and INS Yafo — and Imidisi, an accompanying French vessel, to cross the canal and arrive at Port Said in the north...."

at  http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2012/03/15/israeli-warships-cross-suez-canal-headed-iran-96401/

Egyptian-Israeli Natural Gas Contract Casualty of Arab Spring?

"As last year’s Arab spring has slowly roiled eastwards from Tunisia to the eastern Mediterranean, the two most concerned governments are the U.S. and Israel, that are watching their carefully constructed defense alignments crumble to the populist forces unleashed.
After decades of repression, the Arab “street” is finding its democratic voice, which is rejecting the cozy decades-long security and energy arrangements carefully stitched together by Washington to ensure Israeli security. In the “brave new world” emerging, it is increasingly obvious that the post-Arab Spring governments, inhaling Western democratic ideals relentlessly promoted as the way forward, have a radically different agenda than those proposed by Washington and Tel Aviv.
Viewing social upheavals decades ago, in 1973 Henry Kissinger, President Nixon’s Secretary of State commented prior to the CIA overthrow of the democratically elected government of Chilean socialist President Salvadore Allende “I don't see why we need to stand by and watch a country go communist due to the irresponsibility of its people.”
Now the Arab spring seems to be embracing two policies anathema to Washington – a rejection by Egypt of its ties to Israel, carefully fostered by assassinated Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and his successor, Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s President until 13 months ago, when the Arab spring populist uprising unseated him and his administration’s cozy energy arrangements with Israel, which provided Tel Aviv with 2/5 of its natural gas import requirement needs.
In a development largely overlooked in the Western press, in an evening session on 12 March the Egyptian People’s Assembly demanded the deportation of the Israeli ambassador Yaakov Amitai, and the withdrawal of the Egyptian ambassador from Tel Aviv.
And oh, the nullification of the country’s natural gas sales to Israel.
The People’s Assembly vote was unanimous.
Why?
As a protest against Israel’s recent campaign against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, which the Egyptian Assembly considers a flagrant violation of human rights.
Newly founded Egyptian democratic handwriting on the wall? Assembly speaker Saad al-Katatny asked a special parliamentary committee to follow up the implementation of the demands with the government, releasing a People’s Assembly statement commenting, “Egypt after the revolution will never be a friend of the Zionist entity, the first enemy of Egypt and the Arab nation,” demanding that the Egyptian government review all its relations and agreements with that “enemy” along with calling for stopping Egyptian natural gas exports to Israel.
So, how serious a threat?..."

at  http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Egyptian-Israeli-Natural-Gas-Contract-Casualty-of-Arab-spring.html