The Flaw In Europe’s Austerity Plan: Elections

"Getting Europe’s mainstream politicians and appointed technocrats to agree to bailouts and austerity was actually the easy part. The real challenge for these guys will be holding onto their jobs — and preserving the deals they’ve cut — in upcoming elections.
Voters, it seems, aren’t convinced that that a depression is the only solution to the euro’s design flaws. Faced with the immediate reality of poverty, they’re listening to formerly fringe voices calling for a better deal, either in the form of more help from Germany (via the European Central Bank) or a quick exit from the euro zone and a return to national monetary sovereignty. Greece, of course, is first in line:

Greece’s Fringe Parties Surge Amid Bailout Ire
ATHENS—Weeks after agreeing to an agonizing bailout deal with Europe, Greece is splintering politically ahead of national elections, raising the risk that it won’t be able to make the economic sacrifices still needed to keep it in the euro.
The election, not yet scheduled but expected in April or May, is shaping up as a public revolt against Greece’s political establishment, which has backed the austerity policies that are the price of financial life support from Europe and the International Monetary Fund. Mainstream politicians are increasingly painted as leading Greece into a debt trap, then impoverishing it in trying to escape..."

at  http://dollarcollapse.com/euro-2/the-flaw-in-europes-austerity-plan-elections/

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Huge NYT Exposé Reveals Why The Fiscal Timebomb Will Explode Next Year

"Nobody wants much to think about it yet, but it's well understood by everyone in Washington and on Wall Street, that a potentially massive fiscal problem is looming for the economy next year.

The issue is divided into three parts:

• Sometime in late 2012 or early 2013, Congress will have to approve another debt ceiling hike.
• At the same time, all of the Bush tax cuts are set to expire -- not just the tax cuts for the rich.
• Thanks to the last debt ceiling deal, some big time spending cuts are due to go into effect starting in 2013. In theory, these could be reversed by Congress, but in the context of everything else it will be challenging.

Trying to figure out how it will shake down is especially difficult since it's an election year.
But in the worst case scenario we could have bracing austerity (tax hikes and spending cuts) coupled with another heart-stopping debt ceiling fight. Or we could have some kind of reversal of the spending cuts and a debt ceiling fight, and perhaps another downgrade from ratings agencies, another potential confidence blast.
Just in terms of the drag on growth, recent analysis by Barclays (according to BW) puts the hit at around 3% of GDP..."

at http://www.businessinsider.com/nyt-on-who-killed-the-debt-deal-2012-3#ixzz1qn4vF0nk

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Jim Rogers : Commodity prices still in a major uptrend

"Jim Rogers interviewed by the Indian ET Now 27 March 2012 : commodity prices have not been in a downturn , they may have been in a short term downturn , but long term commodity prices are still in a major uptrend , and that's going to continue , yes they have postponed Armageddon I am glad you put it that way , 2013 and 2014 are what I am most worried about , because this year everybody is trying to just get through the next election , there are 40 elections in 2012 Aisha , everybody is going to do their best to get us through their election " says legendary investor Jim Rogers"

at http://jimrogers1.blogspot.ca/2012/03/jim-rogers-commodity-prices-still-in.html#.T3MqLOPVFJ4.pingfm

The Rejection of Austerity Begins

"With national elections in Greece only a few weeks away, the coalition that rules the nation finds itself in trouble. Politicians who supported austerity measures as a means to get a bailout of the country’s finances face challenges from candidates who say the government went too far. The reaction is only natural. Many voters have been stripped of benefits, had salaries cut or have lost some form or another of their social safety nets. The upcoming election could sweep new members into parliament, and these new members may try to repeal or modify austerity agreements.
Greece is not the only nation that faces angry voters. Similar circumstances could affect elections in Portugal, Spain and even Italy. A referendum will be held in Ireland to seek support for the nation’s treaty with the European Union, a treaty that is the basis of Ireland’s bailout.
The rounds of national elections could be a year off or more, but this may make it more difficult for current leaders to keep their positions. Austerity’s bite could be felt the most in a few more quarters as governments cut expenses, which may push some nations into recessions, increase unemployment and cut the social services to the elderly..."

at http://247wallst.com/2012/03/28/the-rejection-of-austerity-begins/#ixzz1qQJlF5hd