"I've been forecasting a 2nd half slowdown in GDP growth based on:
1) less Federal stimulus spending in the 2nd half of 2010,
2) the end of the inventory correction,
3) more household saving leading to slower growth in personal consumption expenditures,
4) another downturn in housing (lower prices, less residential investment),
5) slowdown in China and Europe and
6) cutbacks at the state and local level.
Some recent reports - like the disappointing employment report for May, reports of pending home sales collapsing in May (after the expiration of the tax credit), soft retail sales in April, a soft month for rail traffic in May - might suggest the slowdown has already started..."
at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/06/has-2nd-half-slowdown-started.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29
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