"The Leading Indicators Are Starting to Turn
Even while I was on vacation in Italy, I had to regularly feed my addiction for economic and investment information. Over the course of a few days I ran across several studies on the Economic Cycle Research Institute's (ECRI) Index of Weekly Leading Economic Indicators. The index has turned down of late. Chad Starliper of Rather & Kittrell sent me the following charts and analysis.
"The ECRI has been getting some news of late. I did a little work on it, played with the rates of change, and found something a little ominous you might be interested in. The normal reported growth rate is an annualized rate of a smoothed WLI. However, when the 13-week annualized rate of change is used - shorter-term momentum - the decline in growth has fallen to a very weak -23.46%. The other times it has fallen this fast? All were either in recession or pointing to recession in short order (Dec. 2000)."
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