"I cannot help but laugh at economists who refuse to see the economy is slowing dramatically, and somehow think manufacturing is going to lead the way to recovery.
Check out this headline on Bloomberg prior to the durable goods report: Orders for Durable Goods in U.S. Probably Rebounded in June
July 28 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for durable goods probably increased in June for the sixth time in the past seven months, showing business spending is supporting the U.S. recovery, economists said before a report today.
In the Bloomberg survey, the median and average forecasts were for an increase of +1%. The high forecast was a preposterous 4%.
Excluding transportation, the median forecast was +.4% and average +.2%.
Individual Forecasts 1.5 Percent or Greater
Barclays Capital +1.5%
BNP Paribas +4.0%
Citi +1.6%
Desjardins Group +2.0%
High Frequency Economics +2.0%
J.P. Morgan Chase +1.7%
Janney Montgomery Scott +3.2%
Landesbank Berlin +2.8%
Nomura Securities Intl. +3.0%
PineBridge Investments +2.5%
Raymond James +2.0%
RBC Capital Markets +2.3%
Ried, Thunberg & Co. +1.5%
Thomson Reuters/IFR +2.9%
Wrightson Associates +1.5%
Individual Forecasts Below Zero Percent
4CAST Ltd. -.5%
IHS Global Insight -0.8%
MF Global -1.0%
Morgan Keegan & Co. -0.5%
The Actual Report
Inquiring minds are reading the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders June 2010
New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in June decreased $2.0 billion or 1.0 percent to $190.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the second consecutive monthly decrease and followed a 0.8 percent May decrease..."
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