Friday, June 24, 2011

QE3 Or No QE3: The CIA's Take

"Well not quite the CIA, but close enough. The good ex-spies of BIA Behavioral Intelligence Analysis have conducted another behavioral assay, this time targeting global overlord Ben Bernanke and specifically his Wednesday press conference, focusing not on the script but what was left unsaid between the lines. For those unfamiliar, "The BIA team represents a diverse mix of highly accomplished professionals from the national intelligence and business communities, who came together to create and deliver BIA’s ground-breaking solutions for our clients. Our intelligence experts average more than 20 years experience in interviewing, evaluating and collecting information across the globe and have been working with premier firms since 2001 to improve investing and business outcomes through application of our unique methodologies." In lieu of a lie detector being hooked up to the Chairman (Simpsons scene comes to mind), this may be one of the better analyses in interpreting what was said... and unsaid.

From BIA Behavior Intelligence:

BIA Behavioral Intelligence: Ben Bernanke at Federal Open Market Committee

Press Briefing
June 22, 2011

Assessment Summary
BIA’s behavioral analysis of Mr. Bernanke’s comments during the June 22, 2011 Federal Open Market Committee press briefing produces a higher level of concern than the briefing in April. Questions covered a broad range of topics, many of which elicited responses that signal behavioral concern. Most of Mr. Bernanke’s concerns likely seem obvious, even to the untrained eye. He acknowledges a great deal of uncertainty about why the rate of growth in the economy has slowed, he qualifies that the recovery “appears” to be proceeding at a moderate pace and consistently resorts to statements to minimize public concerns about the severity and duration of the situation -- belying his own level of confidence in the Committee’s ability to manage through the near-term. Further, his clear effort to limit expectations for improvements in unemployment, along with his persistent efforts to focus attention on the longer term, are consistent with his tacit acknowledgement that the FOMC isn’t quite sure what to do at the moment (“a little bit of time to see what is going to happen would be useful to make policy decisions”).

Even so, TBA Indicators observed in Mr. Bernanke’s comments about inflation reveal more significant concerns than he is admitting. Mr. Bernanke uses highly qualified language and avoids offering specifics, suggesting that he may believe the Committee’s estimates for future inflation rates are overly optimistic. Below are our observations..."

at http://www.zerohedge.com/article/qe3-or-no-qe3-cias-take?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

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