3 BEARISH SCENARIOS FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY

"The news has been rather upbeat in the last few days, but it’s important not to let euphoria corrupt a good approach. Remember, the climb to the top of the investment mountain is filled with loose stones. If you focus only on the top of the mountain and not the pitfalls in front of you you’re guaranteed to slip along the way. So while you are better off maintaining that optimistic long-term approach (I am a super bull about the progress of people, innovation, the USA and the global economy in the long-term), risk management is all about uncovering those loose stones in the near term.

A recent piece by Saxo Bank lays out three scenarios that look like loose stones to me. Although they see the market revisiting the 1385-1400 level in the coming quarters they think the market will ultimately be tripped up by the macro headwinds. They see 3 (all bearish) outcomes:

“In times of uncertainty, and certainly in times of what we call maximum uncertainty, we operate with three main scenarios:.."

at  http://pragcap.com/three-bearish-scenarios-for-the-u-s-economy