"Thoughts on the Jobs Report
European stock market rallied from a potential bloodbath on news of a "good" US jobs report. What passes for "good" decreases with time.
US futures were solidly in the green at the open but it was an immediate "sell the news" reaction.
Here is an overview of today's numbers.
Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
Many of those millions who dropped out of the workforce would start looking if they thought jobs were available. Indeed, in a 2-year old recovery, the labor force should be rising sharply as those who stopped looking for jobs, once again started looking. Instead, the labor force is not expanding at all.
Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force for the past two years, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%..."
at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/another-gap-and-crap-on-payroll-report.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29
European stock market rallied from a potential bloodbath on news of a "good" US jobs report. What passes for "good" decreases with time.
US futures were solidly in the green at the open but it was an immediate "sell the news" reaction.
Here is an overview of today's numbers.
- US Payrolls +117,000
- US Unemployment Rate -.1 to 9.1%
- Participation Rate -.2 to 63.9% accounting for drop in unemployment rate
- Actual number of Employed (by Household Survey) fell by 38,000
- Unemployment rose by 156,000
- Those dropping out of the labor force rose by 374,000
- Civilian population rose by 182,000, Labor Force declined by 193,000
- Average Weekly Workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours
- Average Private Hourly Earnings Increased by 10 Cents
- Government employment decreased by 37,000 - a genuine bright-spot
Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
Many of those millions who dropped out of the workforce would start looking if they thought jobs were available. Indeed, in a 2-year old recovery, the labor force should be rising sharply as those who stopped looking for jobs, once again started looking. Instead, the labor force is not expanding at all.
Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force for the past two years, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%..."
at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/another-gap-and-crap-on-payroll-report.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29
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