"Is China poised to take over from the United States as the world’s most economically dominant power?
This is an essential question, and yet it has not yet been taken seriously enough in the United States, where, this central conceit still reigns: The United States’ economic preeminence cannot be seriously threatened because it is the United States’ to lose, and sooner or later, the United States will rise to the challenge of not losing it. China may be on its way to becoming an economic superpower, and the United States may have to share the global stage with it in the future. But, the argument goes, the threat from China is not so imminent, so great, or so multifaceted that it can push the United States out of the driver’s seat.
Is this argument valid, though? And what are the implications of an economically dominant China? My piece [pdf] in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs, drawing upon my forthcoming book, Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China’s Economic Dominance, addresses the first question and some possible implications of a dominant China for the United States.
My column in the Business Standard on August 24 addresses the possible implications of a dominant China for a country such as India. One conclusion of my book (elaborated in Chapters 8 and 9) is that larger countries like the United States and India need to come together to forge multilateral coalitions to engage with China on a range of issues in order to tether China more securely to the multilateral system.
My column concludes thus: “The appealing symmetry in future efforts to engage China is to induce a greater humility in both the United States and India. The United States will have to spurn the temptation— rather shed the delusion—that it can exercise exclusive leadership and dominance in shaping outcomes. India will have to stop coveting the mantle of leadership and instead participate in multilateral co-operation as an important but humble drone rather than as the queen bee.”
at http://www.piie.com/realtime/?p=2339&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=%24%7Bfeed%7D&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+%24%7Bupdate%7D+%28%24%7BPIIE+Update%7D%29
This is an essential question, and yet it has not yet been taken seriously enough in the United States, where, this central conceit still reigns: The United States’ economic preeminence cannot be seriously threatened because it is the United States’ to lose, and sooner or later, the United States will rise to the challenge of not losing it. China may be on its way to becoming an economic superpower, and the United States may have to share the global stage with it in the future. But, the argument goes, the threat from China is not so imminent, so great, or so multifaceted that it can push the United States out of the driver’s seat.
Is this argument valid, though? And what are the implications of an economically dominant China? My piece [pdf] in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs, drawing upon my forthcoming book, Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China’s Economic Dominance, addresses the first question and some possible implications of a dominant China for the United States.
My column in the Business Standard on August 24 addresses the possible implications of a dominant China for a country such as India. One conclusion of my book (elaborated in Chapters 8 and 9) is that larger countries like the United States and India need to come together to forge multilateral coalitions to engage with China on a range of issues in order to tether China more securely to the multilateral system.
My column concludes thus: “The appealing symmetry in future efforts to engage China is to induce a greater humility in both the United States and India. The United States will have to spurn the temptation— rather shed the delusion—that it can exercise exclusive leadership and dominance in shaping outcomes. India will have to stop coveting the mantle of leadership and instead participate in multilateral co-operation as an important but humble drone rather than as the queen bee.”
at http://www.piie.com/realtime/?p=2339&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=%24%7Bfeed%7D&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+%24%7Bupdate%7D+%28%24%7BPIIE+Update%7D%29
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