"… ironically the source would appear to be Société Générale.
Or more specifically its Rates Strategy team, which made the following observations in their daily note on Monday.
No matter. SocGen is right to be worried about the budgetary and economic outlook for Italy, if these flashes are anything to go by..."
at http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/09/05/669321/about-the-italian-downgrade-rumours/
Or more specifically its Rates Strategy team, which made the following observations in their daily note on Monday.
Rating agencies monitoring –Italy:
1) Moody’s – Italy is Aa2 since 2002, but now on downgrade review since 17 June; Moody’s also signalled (18 July) imminent actions on regional/local government.
2) Fitch at AA- stable since Oct-2006. Fitch published a note 13 July ‚Risks to Italy’s Public Finances‛, but still kept a stable outlook.
3) S&P’s outlook for its ‚A+ u‛ was revised to negative on 20 May. The last downgrade was in 2006.
So downgrades of Italy by all three agencies look probable, given recent developments. The main motives are likely to be 1) budgetary and macro outlooks; 2) uncertainties over the availability of market financing; and 3) Italy’s high rating relative to peers (as far as Fitch, and especially, Moody’s, is concerned).Well, a downgrade from Moody’s is probable. In fact, we can expect to hear something from very soon — that’s because a decision usually follows 90 days after a review is announced. We are less sure about S&P. As for Fitch it would have to put Italy under review before any downgrade.
No matter. SocGen is right to be worried about the budgetary and economic outlook for Italy, if these flashes are anything to go by..."
at http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/09/05/669321/about-the-italian-downgrade-rumours/
