"Wondering what is next for Europe? Don't be. With Jurgen Stark, aka the last
real hawk at the ECB, gone, here comes "the printing." SocGen's Dylan Grice
explains.
From SocGen:
Suppose that Italy or Spain get caught up in the whirlwind like Greece, Ireland and Portugal, as threatened to happen last month. Maybe the Italian political situation deteriorates, maybe Ireland defaults, maybe Greece will go revolutionary, or maybe an ill-advised wayward comment from an influential European politician will spook markets and send them into renewed tailspin. We don't know which of these will happen, if any. All we know is that these are some of the many plausible triggers for a further deterioration in this fragile situation.
Let's say one of those triggers is activated, leading to an intensification in the runs on the securities of eurozone governments and banks, probably Italian and/or Spanish, but who knows? In all likelihood, every bank will get further pummelled regardless. And let's also say that the panic is fuelled further by concern that Italy and Spain's multi-trillion-euro balance sheet banks are simply too big for their already fiscally strained governments to save. Fear that they will try creates more panic in the market for those government bonds, the viability of the euro is perceived by the markets to be threatened and so all eyes switch to Germany and France to provide further bail-outs.
But then everyone realizes that France and Germany's own banks are being dragged down. And, in France and Germany at least these banks would take priority over those of other countries. So the trillion-euro bank balance sheets of many of the eurozone's financial institutions seem too big for even the core governments to save. Runs develop in the core government bond markets too as investors take fright that they might try. Meanwhile, the continued absence of any coherent pan-European political leadership ensures any opportunities to get ahead of the panic are missed, and so one/some European banks fail.
Thus the entire financial system fails. The 1931 Credit Anstalt crisis is rerun and the depression that follows is too much for austerity fatigued peripheral eurozone members, whose electorates succumb to the siren call of anti-euro populists promising deliverance from the economic misery imposed by Berlin. The euro ends not with a whimper, but a bang ...."
at http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ecbctrlp-next-steps-european-implosion
From SocGen:
Suppose that Italy or Spain get caught up in the whirlwind like Greece, Ireland and Portugal, as threatened to happen last month. Maybe the Italian political situation deteriorates, maybe Ireland defaults, maybe Greece will go revolutionary, or maybe an ill-advised wayward comment from an influential European politician will spook markets and send them into renewed tailspin. We don't know which of these will happen, if any. All we know is that these are some of the many plausible triggers for a further deterioration in this fragile situation.
Let's say one of those triggers is activated, leading to an intensification in the runs on the securities of eurozone governments and banks, probably Italian and/or Spanish, but who knows? In all likelihood, every bank will get further pummelled regardless. And let's also say that the panic is fuelled further by concern that Italy and Spain's multi-trillion-euro balance sheet banks are simply too big for their already fiscally strained governments to save. Fear that they will try creates more panic in the market for those government bonds, the viability of the euro is perceived by the markets to be threatened and so all eyes switch to Germany and France to provide further bail-outs.
But then everyone realizes that France and Germany's own banks are being dragged down. And, in France and Germany at least these banks would take priority over those of other countries. So the trillion-euro bank balance sheets of many of the eurozone's financial institutions seem too big for even the core governments to save. Runs develop in the core government bond markets too as investors take fright that they might try. Meanwhile, the continued absence of any coherent pan-European political leadership ensures any opportunities to get ahead of the panic are missed, and so one/some European banks fail.
Thus the entire financial system fails. The 1931 Credit Anstalt crisis is rerun and the depression that follows is too much for austerity fatigued peripheral eurozone members, whose electorates succumb to the siren call of anti-euro populists promising deliverance from the economic misery imposed by Berlin. The euro ends not with a whimper, but a bang ...."
at http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ecbctrlp-next-steps-european-implosion
