"Exit polls in respect of the vote in Mrs Merkel’s home State of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (hope I got the spelling right), suggest that she has been trounced, as have her coalition partners (Free Democrats), who have been so badly beaten that they could have lost all their representatives in the regional assembly. This is the 6th regional election loss this year for Mrs Merkel and her coalition – a bit careless I would have thought.
Now it gets serious. The key election issue was Mrs Merkel’s handling of the Euro Zone crisis – she had tried to get tough on the Euro Zone – too little, too late. However, I suspect she will be far less tolerant from now on. As I keep banging on, Mrs Merkel is not a natural leader – she is a back room operator, cautious of taking a position unless she has achieved prior consensus. Furthermore, she does not understand markets – a common problem with most European politicians, bureaucrats and officials.
The next German regional elections are in Berlin later this month.
The Greeks have been ignoring all calls to get serious. They have run out of time. On Wednesday, the German Constitutional Court rules. Most believe that they will not block the bail out of the peripheral Euro Zone countries. Quite possibly, but giving a blank cheque to the executive, is also unlikely, in my humble opinion. They may, for example, insist on additional oversight by the German Parliament, which will make the EFSF and the future ESM unworkable, as decisions (which need Parliamentary approval) will take far too long to deal with market issues – basically means that it is over to you ECB/Monsieur Trichet to sort things out – and they are totally reluctant, though what choice do they have.
Recently the German President accused the ECB of violating its mandate and Article 123 of the Lisbon Treaty. The head of the German Central Bank (the Bundesbank), Mr Jens Weidmann has, equally, been highly critical of the ECB – he stated that EU law was being “gutted” by the ECB bond purchases of Italian and Spanish and other PIIGS debt. No diplomatic terminology there, you will note..."
at http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/people-who-play-with-fire/
Now it gets serious. The key election issue was Mrs Merkel’s handling of the Euro Zone crisis – she had tried to get tough on the Euro Zone – too little, too late. However, I suspect she will be far less tolerant from now on. As I keep banging on, Mrs Merkel is not a natural leader – she is a back room operator, cautious of taking a position unless she has achieved prior consensus. Furthermore, she does not understand markets – a common problem with most European politicians, bureaucrats and officials.
The next German regional elections are in Berlin later this month.
The Greeks have been ignoring all calls to get serious. They have run out of time. On Wednesday, the German Constitutional Court rules. Most believe that they will not block the bail out of the peripheral Euro Zone countries. Quite possibly, but giving a blank cheque to the executive, is also unlikely, in my humble opinion. They may, for example, insist on additional oversight by the German Parliament, which will make the EFSF and the future ESM unworkable, as decisions (which need Parliamentary approval) will take far too long to deal with market issues – basically means that it is over to you ECB/Monsieur Trichet to sort things out – and they are totally reluctant, though what choice do they have.
Recently the German President accused the ECB of violating its mandate and Article 123 of the Lisbon Treaty. The head of the German Central Bank (the Bundesbank), Mr Jens Weidmann has, equally, been highly critical of the ECB – he stated that EU law was being “gutted” by the ECB bond purchases of Italian and Spanish and other PIIGS debt. No diplomatic terminology there, you will note..."
at http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/people-who-play-with-fire/
