"History may not be on the side of those calling for recession currently. According to recent data from Deutsche Bank the current expansion is still on the shorter end of the historical average length.
Since 1854 the average expansion has lasted 40 months. Since the great depression the average expansion has lasted 58 months. The last 7 expansion, however, have lasted almost 70 months on average. At month 27 the current expansion would be short by historical standards. Of course, if you’re following my balance sheet recession theory this is a relatively moot point, but if we’re going to following the standard NBER data points on recessions then this casts doubt on the odds of a technical recession occurring in the coming 12 months..."
at http://pragcap.com/will-the-shorter-business-cycle-lead-to-recession-in-2012
Since 1854 the average expansion has lasted 40 months. Since the great depression the average expansion has lasted 58 months. The last 7 expansion, however, have lasted almost 70 months on average. At month 27 the current expansion would be short by historical standards. Of course, if you’re following my balance sheet recession theory this is a relatively moot point, but if we’re going to following the standard NBER data points on recessions then this casts doubt on the odds of a technical recession occurring in the coming 12 months..."
at http://pragcap.com/will-the-shorter-business-cycle-lead-to-recession-in-2012
