"Talk about sticking to your guns here – John Hussman still believes the likelihood of recession is very high. It’s a call that he’s been making for a number of quarters now and was clearly influenced by the ECRI’s rather confident recession calls. I wonder what Lakshman Achuthan is thinking about the recent economic data….
As I’ve long been saying, I still think the large budget deficit makes the likelihood of a technical double dip low in 2012, but risks are increasingly high that that could change in 2013 as the budget deficit peels off (I’ve been playing this by ear as quarterly deficit estimates are released). The main point is, we remain in a balance sheet recession which appears to be showing slow healing signs and as long as the government supports the de-leveraging consumer with high deficits the economy is unlikely to experience any sort of substantial decline. I still think my 2013/2014 end date is not far off..."
at http://pragcap.com/hussman-recession-risk-remains-high
As I’ve long been saying, I still think the large budget deficit makes the likelihood of a technical double dip low in 2012, but risks are increasingly high that that could change in 2013 as the budget deficit peels off (I’ve been playing this by ear as quarterly deficit estimates are released). The main point is, we remain in a balance sheet recession which appears to be showing slow healing signs and as long as the government supports the de-leveraging consumer with high deficits the economy is unlikely to experience any sort of substantial decline. I still think my 2013/2014 end date is not far off..."
at http://pragcap.com/hussman-recession-risk-remains-high
