"While sounding just a tad preachy in his February newsletter, Bill Gross'
latest summary piece on the economy, on the Fed's forray into infinite ZIRP,
into maturity transformation, and the lack thereof, on the Fed's massive blunder
in treating the liquidity trap, but most importantly on what the transition from
a levering to delevering global economy means, is a must read. First: on the
fatal flaw in the Fed's plan: "when rational or irrational fear persuades an investor to be more
concerned about the return of
her money than on
her money then liquidity can be trapped in a mattress, a bank account or
a five basis point Treasury bill. But that commonsensical observation is well
known to Fed policymakers, economic historians and certainly citizens on Main
Street." And secondly, here is why the party is over: "Where does credit go when
it dies? It goes back to where it came from. It delevers, it slows and inhibits
economic growth, and it turns economic theory upside down, ultimately
challenging the wisdom of policymakers. We’ll all be making this up as we go
along for what may seem like an eternity. A 30-50 year virtuous cycle of credit
expansion which has produced outsize paranormal returns for financial assets –
bonds, stocks, real estate and commodities alike – is now delevering because of
excessive “risk” and the “price”
of money at the zero-bound. We are witnessing the death of abundance and the
borning of austerity, for what may be a long, long time." Yet most troubling is
that even Gross, a long-time member of the status quo, now sees what has been
obvious only to fringe blogs for years: "Recent central bank
behavior, including that of the U.S. Fed, provides assurances that short and
intermediate yields will not change, and therefore bond prices are not likely
threatened on the downside. Still, zero-bound money may kill as opposed to
create credit. Developed economies where these low yields reside may suffer
accordingly. It may as well,
induce inflationary distortions that give a rise to commodities and gold as
store of value alternatives when there is little value left in
paper." Let that sink in for a second, and let it further sink
in what happens when $1.3 trillion Pimco decides to open a gold fund. Physical
preferably..."
at http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bill-gross-why-we-are-witnessing-death-abundance-and-why-gold-becoming-default-store-value
at http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bill-gross-why-we-are-witnessing-death-abundance-and-why-gold-becoming-default-store-value