Sunday, June 17, 2012

The NIghtmare Waiting In the Wings

"I know it's not the sort of thing that people talk about when they are focused on what band-aid-cum-can-kicking "solution" authorities are going to come up with in the next 24 hours, but even if by some miracle they sort out the current round of problems, just look at what's waiting for us in the wings:
A massive amount of global corporate debt matures in the next four years, and it’s causing treasurers to refocus their efforts on securing access to credit.
A measure of the scale of the refinancing problem is revealed in a recent report by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services. S&P suggests there is as much as a $46 trillion “credit overhang” — the amount of money corporates will need to raise between 2012 and 2016 to refinance their soon-to-mature debts and to fund capital expenditure and working capital growth.
The combination of bank balance-sheet restructuring, a euro zone crisis, a softening U.S. recovery, and the prospect of slower growth in China could make for what S&P calls “a perfect storm” in credit markets. S&P’s working assumption is that “global banks and debt capital markets will largely be able to continue to provide the majority of liquidity to allow most corporate issuers to proactively manage their forthcoming refinancings.” However, S&P warns, “the balance is fragile” and there is the threat of financing disruptions “even for borrowers that are not highly leveraged.”

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