Monday, July 16, 2012

Where Do U.S. Bonds Rank in Safety Compared to Other Countries? Not 1st, Not 5th, Not 10th, Not 12th, But…

"Natixis, the French investment bank and asset manager has determined that the safest country – the country whose bonds are really risk-free – is Sweden, the only one to score a perfect 5. Where do the U.S., Canada, the U.K., Australia and other major countries rank.

Natixis considers five criteria it says are necessary for a country’s bond to play a “risk-free” role in an investor’s portfolio, namely:
  1. have sound public finances (be solvent);
  2. not have excessive monetary creation which could result in either an abnormally low level of long-term interest rates in the near future or a risk of inflation in the long term;
  3. not have a chronic external deficit (due to the small size of industry, a chronic problem of competitiveness), which would lead to a balance of payments crisis;
  4. not have excessive private debt, which would lead to a financial and banking crisis;
  5. have sufficient potential growth to carry the debt.
Here is their ranking of past and present countries with perceived safe-haven statuses based on the five criteria:"

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