Wednesday, October 17, 2012

How To Play a Comex Default

"This week’s interview with gold dealer Tom Cloud of National Numismatic Associates comes as precious metals are correcting and rumors are swirling around Comex silver.
Dollar Collapse: Hi Tom. It’s been an interesting couple of days for silver, with a big Comex draw-down being followed by a sizable price drop. If the silver market wasn’t so obviously free and honest, it might be tempting to suspect some kind of manipulation…
Tom Cloud: Late Friday afternoon a big client of JP Morgan requested delivery of 3.6 million ounces, which is 17% of all the registered inventory of silver (assuming it’s all really there). But only 1.6 million ounces were reported moved. A lot of people are asking where the rest of it is. If it wasn’t immediately available and the client allowed JP Morgan to move it in pieces, that’s another sign of very tight supply.
Ordinarily seeing that much silver inventory move would make the price go up, but at the same time they – probably the same people — were buying shorts to drive the market down late in the day when trading was slow.
DC: The size of the silver draw-down raises the question of what happens if a few more big players want to turn their futures contracts into physical metal. Would this cause a delivery disruption or outright default on the Comex?
TC: Somebody stepped up and said ‘no more paper for me; it’s time to get the real thing in my name.’ They’ve played the [paper silver] game and benefited from it and now they want their silver. But not everyone can do that. There is 100 times as much silver paper [in the form of futures contracts] as there is physical, which means a lot more people think they own silver than there is silver in the world. At some point someone will be left out. If 17% of Comex inventory is taken out in one move, then you don’t need that many more big players to take delivery to see this thing fall apart.
A lot of people were already worried about this, and what happened Friday certainly raises the odds that others with paper claims are going to ask for physical. This morning I’m seeing a lot of dealers buying a lot of silver for their own inventories. This is a very scary situation..."

at http://dollarcollapse.com/precious-metals/how-to-play-a-comex-default/

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