“There is still an
incredible amount of misunderstanding on Wall Street about the relationship
between the price of gold and the true value of the U.S. dollar. Most pundits
simply claim that a rising dollar, as measured by the Dollar Index (DXY), causes
gold prices to fall…and that is the end of their analysis.
In truth, the dollar’s intrinsic value carries the
most weight in determining the price of gold and not simply how the dollar is
faring vis a vis a basket of other fiat currencies. According to many market
analysts, the 5% rise of the dollar on the DXY since February has been
attributed to the return of “king dollar” and that, as they claim, is why gold
prices are falling.
But they simply choose to overlook the fact that the
economies of our major trading partners are in recession and the Bank of Japan’s
monetary policy is more aggressive in relative terms towards the depreciation of
the yen than our Federal Reserve is to the dollar. The BOJ will increase the
size of its balance sheet by $1.4 trillion by the end of 2014. Our Fed may end
up doing the same but the Japanese economy is just one third the size of the
U.S...."
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