Monday, February 17, 2014

These Three Charts Show Why Everyone Should Stop Freaking Out About Chinese Foreign Debt

"..."There has been no significant increase in China’s liabilities with the rest of the world – and when FDI is excluded, the absolute number is small and flat," writes Green. "No impending cataclysm here." 
china IIP
Standard Chartered
Total foreign debt as a percent of GDP shows "no sign of a substantial ramp-up in borrowing from offshore."
china external debt
Standard Chartered
China's foreign bank loans to China amount to 10% of GDP, one of the lowest  among emerging markets.
EM external debt
Standard Chartered


The one thing to watch is the pace at which the stock of cross-border loans is growing, currently up 50% year-over-year.
But the recent debt expansion "has been the normalization of what was an abnormal situation: a massive economy shutting itself off from offshore funding sources," writes Green.
Foreign borrowing of 10-14% of GDP is perfectly normal for the world's second largest economy and one that plans to become an international investor, according to Green."
at http://www.businessinsider.com/why-you-shouldnt-worry-about-chinese-foreign-debt-charts-2014-2#ixzz2tbtRXmRU

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