Friday, January 9, 2015

10 Key Events That Preceded The Last Financial Crisis That Are Happening Again RIGHT NOW

"They can see the same patterns that we saw in early 2008 unfolding again right in front of us.  I wanted to put these patterns in a single article so that they will be easy to share with people.  The following are 10 key events that preceded the last financial crisis that are happening again right now…
#1 A really bad start to the year for the stock market.  During the first three trading days of 2015, the S&P 500 was down a total of 2.73 percent.  There are only two times in history when it has declined by more than three percent during the first three trading days of a year.  Those years were 2000 and 2008, and in both years we witnessed enormous stock market declines.
#2 Very choppy financial market behavior.  This is something that I discussedyesterday.  In general, calm markets tend to go up.  When markets get choppy, they tend to go down.  For example, the chart that I have posted below shows how the Dow Jones Industrial Average behaved from the beginning of 2006 to the end of 2008.  As you can see, the Dow was very calm as it rose throughout 2006 and most of 2007, but it got very choppy as 2008 played out…
The Dow 2006 to 2008
As I also mentioned yesterday, it is important not to get fooled if stocks soar on a particular day.  The three largest single day stock market gains in history were right in the middle of the financial crisis of 2008.  When you start to see big ups and big downs in the market, that is a sign of big trouble ahead.  That is why it is so alarming that global financial markets have begun to become quite choppy in recent weeks.
#3 A substantial decline for 10 year bond yields.  When investors get scared, there tends to be a “flight to safety” as investors move their money to safer investments.  We saw this happen in 2008, and that is happening again right now.
In fact, according to Bloomberg, global 10 year bond yields have already dropped to low levels that are absolutely unprecedented…
Taken together, the average 10-year bond yield of the U.S., Japan and Germany has dropped below 1 percent for the first time ever, according to Steven Englander, global head of G-10 foreign-exchange strategy at Citigroup Inc.
That’s not good news. The rock-bottom rates, which fall below zero when inflation is taken into account, show “that investors think we are going nowhere for a long time,” Englander wrote in a report yesterday.
#4 The price of oil crashes.  As I write this, the price of U.S. oil has dipped below $48 a barrel.  But back in June, it was sitting at $106 at one point.  As the chart below demonstrates, there is only one other time in history when the price of oil has declined by more than $50 in less than a year…
Price Of Oil 2015
The only other time there has been an oil price collapse of this magnitude we experienced the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression shortly thereafter.  Are we about to see history repeat?  For much more on this, please see my previous article entitled “Guess What Happened The Last Time The Price Of Oil Crashed Like This?
#5 A dramatic drop in the number of oil and gas rigs in operation.  Right now, oil and gas rigs are going out of operation at a frightening pace.  During the fourth quarter of 2014, 93 oil and gas rigs were idled, and it is being projected that another200 will shut down this quarter.  As this Business Insider article demonstrates, this is also something that happened during the financial crisis of 2008 and it continued well into 2009.
#6 The price of gasoline takes a huge tumble.  Millions of Americans are celebrating that the price of gasoline has plummeted in recent weeks.  But they were also celebrating when it happened back in 2008 as well.  But of course it turned out that there was really nothing to celebrate in 2008.  In short order, millions of Americans lost their jobs and their homes.  So the chart that I have posted below is definitely not “good news”…"

at http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/10-key-events-preceded-last-financial-crisis-happening-right-now

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