Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Keep Your Seatbelt Fastened – Another Round Of Panic In Stocks Is Likely

"On the heels of the Nikkei plunging 8.5 percent in the past two trading sessions, a legend in the business is telling people to keep their seat belts fastened because another round of panic in stocks is likely.
King World News note: The piece below refers to the “Taper Tantrum.” The term “Taper Tantrum” refers to the surge in US treasury yields (global government bond yields as well), in summer of 2013 when then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke put a spotlight on the wind down of Fed asset purchases (tapering off QE).
Here is a portion of today’s note from legend Art Cashin:  Of Canaries, Mine Shafts And Other Warning Signals – Brian Reynolds hangs his hat at New Albion Partners and follows the stock market with a bit of a different perspective. For years, Brian has maintained that U.S. pensions are so underfunded and desperate for yield in a ZIRP environment that they change their risks profiles. They hire hedge funds who then lever their money into equities. 
Brian’s thesis has allowed him to make some great market calls in the last couple years. Monday, however, Brian sent a somewhat cautionary note to clients. Here’s what he wrote: 
In this morning’s column we highlighted the surge in our insurance company CDS index up to the 112 basis point area. We wrote “The most worrisome thing we are looking at in the near term is insurance company credit derivatives.” 

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