A Country Matures, An Exchange Rate Declines
After two weeks on the road visiting clients your analyst returns with a better view of the consensus outlook. There is, though, much in the consensus to disagree with. In particular it seems peculiar that the consensus believes the democratically elected government of Italy, with policies entirely contrary to EU membership, will be put through the bureaucratic meat grinder in Rome and Brussels and turned into EU sausage, in a similar process that minced the political representatives of Greece.
While this might well be the case, it is hard to understand that the grinding destruction of this democracy, even if it is only moderate compared to the Greek experience, can be anything but bad for growth and asset prices in the EU. Disciplining these politicians to abandon their manifesto promises and follow the ways of the EU is highly unlikely to be a painless experience, either for Italy or the rest of the EU. Nonetheless, investors are content to believe that a painless disciplining of Italy’s elected representatives is all but inevitable. We shall see.
Perhaps the most prevailing consensus view is that the recent weakness of the RMB represents a Chinese counter-punch in the trade war with the US. Coming when it does, it is easy to see the accelerated decline of the RMB as a tactical and not a strategic move. Comments by the PBOC on July 3rd have probably reassured many investors that the managed exchange rate regime is not at risk and that the RMB will continue to be managed against a basket of currencies. Your analyst does not agree.
Readers of the Q2 2018 report (When Monetary Systems Fail - A Guide For The Cautious) will know why the decline of the RMB exchange rate is part of a larger change in the global monetary system. It is a change that is initially deflationary and accompanied by a likely credit crisis. Of course, such a breakdown has been close three times post-GFC with first the European debt crisis (2011-2012), the taper tantrum (2013) and in the commodity price collapse that ended with the so-called Shanghai Accord in Q1 2016. So it is not surprising that market participants believe that, once again, central bankers stand ready to stick their fingers in the dike that holds back the market forces of deflation associated with the end of the current global monetary system. The recent movements in the RMB show that Jay Powell’s refusal to join the shoring-up party has prompted a fundamental shift in Chinese monetary policy..."
at https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-06/russell-napier-trade-war-beginning-new-global-monetary-system
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